Main points of investment
The company's main business is the development, sales and service of coal machinery such as supporting machinery, safety drilling rigs, tunneling equipment and transport machinery. Among them, supporting machines and tools are the leading products. The supporting machines and tools produced by the company include bolting machines, bolting cars and supporting tools, which can provide complete sets of equipment and services for coal mine bolting construction. The company is the backbone manufacturer of bolt support equipment, accounting for more than 30% of the market share of the country.
The increase of coal production + the improvement of the degree of mechanization + the transformation demand of existing equipment "has become the main driving force of coal machinery, and the space of the 12th five-year Plan is more than 500 billion. By 2011, the coal output will reach more than 3.3 billion tons. From 2015 to 2015, the total investment in new coal mines in the coal industry is 357 billion yuan, and the investment in coal machinery and equipment needed for new coal production is about 124.9 billion yuan. In addition, according to the 12th five-year Plan for the Development of the Coal Industry (draft for soliciting opinions), the degree of mechanization of coal mining in coal mines across the country has reached more than 75%.
At the same time, the existing coal machinery and equipment is gradually aging, and some of the equipment is out of service. In the next few years, the demand for the renewal and transformation of coal machinery in China will also maintain rapid growth. Adding up the above three kinds of demand, according to the forecast of China Coal Machinery Industry Association, the total demand for coal machinery from 2011 to 2015 is 514.7 billion yuan, and the CAGR is 16.5%.
In 2015, the market capacity of coal mine bolt support equipment is about 1.2 billion. At present, bolt support technology is the most suitable support method for coal roadway, and it is widely used in mines in our country. According to the work report of the Coal Mine support Committee of China Coal Industry Association in 2010, during the Eleventh five-year Plan period, the average total footage of coal mine roadways in China is about 15 million meters per year, of which the total footage of coal roadways accounts for about 84%. The total footage of rock roadway accounts for about 16%. At present, the bolt support rate of coal roadway in key state-owned coal mines has reached more than 85%. According to estimates, the market capacity of coal mine bolting machines and tools is about 500 million yuan in 2010, 700 million yuan in 2012 and 1.2 billion yuan in 2015.
It is estimated that the fully diluted EPS of the company in 12, 13 and 14 years is 0.45,0.57 and 0.72 yuan, respectively. If the 12-year 12-15 times price-earnings ratio is given, the reasonable valuation is 5.40-6.75 yuan, corresponding to 8.4-10.6 times PE in 13 years. Considering that the company's offline subscription multiple is less than 4 times, and the issue price is higher than the company's valuation, it is recommended not to participate in the application.
