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【申银万国证券】双成药业:化学合成多肽药物细分市场领先者

申萬宏源 ·  Jul 26, 2012 00:00  · Researches

Key investment points: Chemically synthesized peptide drug segment market leader: The company specializes in R&D, production and sales of chemically synthesized peptide drugs. Wang Chengdong and Wang Yingpu's father and son indirectly held 34.45% and 16.03% of the company's shares after listing through Shuangcheng Investment and HSP, respectively, and are the actual controllers of the company. The participation of a number of well-known domestic and foreign venture capital firms shows corporate governance standards. From 2009 to 2011, the company's revenue increased by 23.0%, and net profit increased by 48.1%. In 2011, the company achieved revenue of 134 million yuan, an increase of 18.3% over the previous year, a net profit of 70.41 million, a year-on-year increase of 48.1%, a net profit margin of 52.7%, and a return on net assets of 30.9%. The new thymus method is the company's main source of revenue and profit. The new thymus method for injecting immune enhancers is the company's core product. The company's revenue accounted for 63.5%, 66.5%, and 71.6% respectively, and gross profit accounted for 84.9%, 80.6%, and 85.2%, which is the company's main source of revenue and profit. Currently, only 6 companies have obtained approval for the new production of the thymus method. Among them, Suzhou Tianma and Changcheng Pharmaceutical only received approval for production in 10 years. The company's share of the new thymus method market is about 20%, second only to the original American Saisheng and Chengdu Diao. The company adopted a new professional academic promotion and sales model under refined investment agents for the thymus method. The factory prices from 09 to 11 were 33.4, 33.1, and 31.5 yuan/branch, respectively, and the price remained stable. The fund-raising project is planned for the long term. The company's fund-raising funds are mainly invested in “existing plant technical improvement and new plant construction projects” and R&D center construction projects. The new production capacity construction mainly aims to ease the company's production capacity bottlenecks, launch new drugs, and meet the new GMP regulatory requirements and market export regulations for some APIs. The company focuses on R&D. The R&D expenditure rates in 09-11 were 8.1%, 6.8% and 5.9% respectively, which are at the leading level in the industry. The R&D center construction project mainly provides a good hardware environment for the company's R&D and enhances the R&D level. The reasonable subscription price is 16.1-19.6 yuan. The company's future growth will be steady. We expect the company's fully diluted earnings per share in 2011-2013 to be 0.70 yuan, 0.87 yuan, and 1.01 yuan, up 20%, 24%, and 16% year-on-year. Referring to the valuation level of comparable listed companies and the company's growth, we believe that the company's valuation level is reasonable to predict the price-earnings ratio of 23-28 times 2012, and the estimated price to profit ratio is 16.1-19.6 yuan. Special Reminder: The IPO pricing predicted in this report is not a price performance on the first day of listing, but a reasonable price range under conditions where the current market environment remains largely unchanged.

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