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【日信证券】双成药业:多肽药物行业的领先企业

日信證券 ·  Jul 26, 2012 00:00  · Researches

Investment highlights Leading companies in the peptide drug industry. The company is committed to the R&D, production and sales of chemically synthesized polypeptide drugs. The main products include thymus novel, somatostatin, and thymus pentapeptide. Thymus therapy (Kitai) is the main source of profit, accounting for more than 85% of gross profit. The market share of “Kitai” is in the top three. Due to the gradual lifting of new health insurance restrictions under the thymus gland law, there is still some room for growth in the future. The company adopts the “investment agent+professional academic promotion” model for sales, which is conducive to the return of payment and the in-depth exploration of market potential. Focus on R & D investment and actively develop novel peptide drugs. The focus of the company's development is the subsequent introduction of novel peptide drugs. Notable varieties include efibat and exenatide, which are used for antiplatelet aggregation and diabetes treatment, respectively. Both drugs are best-selling varieties in the field of polypeptide drugs. Once approved, they will be added to existing product lines and enhance their position in the industry. Funds were raised to expand peptide production capacity and develop R&D centers. The plan is to raise 300 million yuan to invest in projects to expand production of peptide APIs and formulations and to build R&D centers. Expanded products include not only the new thymus method, somatostatin, and thymus pentapeptide products, but also the new varieties of efebat. The production capacity of peptide APIs was increased from 10 kg to 60 kg, solving the bottleneck in upstream production capacity. Profit forecasting and quotation recommendations. We expect earnings per share from 2012 to 2014 to $0.74, $0.90, and $1.06, respectively (based on total share capital after issuance). The corresponding 2012 performance was 24-28 times PE. The reasonable value range was 17.76-20.72 yuan, and the recommended inquiry range was 15.98-18.65 yuan. Risk suggests a single product structure; new product development has failed.

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