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【华泰联合证券】北玻股份:订单在手,盼“金”苹果

華泰聯合證券 ·  Jan 17, 2012 00:00  · Researches

Toughened glass equipment manufacturing is the company's main business, with a cumulative market share of 50%. In the long run, the structural adjustment of China's glass industry and the increase in the glass deep processing rate will guarantee future demand for tempering equipment. Affected by the short-term downturn in the glass industry, we believe that there are uncertainties in the company's sales of tempering equipment in 2012. Judging from historical data, sales of tempering equipment next year will be the same as in 2011. Low Emission Coating (LOW-E) glass equipment manufacturing is the company's business with the greatest potential for growth. The long-term demand for LOW-E glass equipment in China mainly depends on the popularity of LOW-E glass under the influence of energy saving and emission reduction policies. Currently, the company is the only domestic enterprise that can independently produce low radiation coating equipment. Its sales price is limited to about 1/2 of similar imported products from abroad. It has strong substitution and cost advantages, with a market share of 58% in 2011. We predict that in 2012, the company will produce full production of low radiation coating equipment and will continue to maintain the advantages of domestic substitution. It is estimated that revenue of 5 units can be confirmed, which is a stable profit growth point for the company. Deep-processing glass products have always been the company's display business (capacity utilization rate is only 20%), positioned at the high end, and established a brand image. We estimate that if the Apple headquarters order is successfully signed next year, it will provide the company with additional growth impetus: it can increase the company's 2012-2013 EPS by about 0.4 to 0.5 yuan and 0.8 to 1.0 yuan. TCO coated glass equipment is a research project of the company. Currently, thin-film batteries produced in cooperation with Xinao New Energy have been sent to the US for certification, and feedback is expected to be received in early 2012. In the context of a market where the price of polysilicon continues to decline, there is some uncertainty about the outlook. The company's 2011 EPS is estimated to be 0.45 yuan. Without considering the deep processing glass order from Apple headquarters, the EPS forecast for 2012-13 is 0.51 yuan and 0.67 yuan respectively, corresponding to dynamic PE 20.23 and 17.82 times, and the valuation is basically reasonable. If an order from Apple is successfully obtained, EPS is expected to reach 0.95 and 1.42 yuan respectively from 2012 to 13, corresponding to dynamic PE 9.48 and 6.35 times, and the valuation is low. Considering the possibility that the company will receive orders from Apple, and that low radiation coating equipment and TCO coating equipment have a lot of room for future growth, we gave it an “increase in holdings” rating. Risk warning 1) In the face of poor market conditions, the company paid back orders for low radiation coating equipment in 2012, confirming that revenue is uncertain. 2) As the strength of competitors increases, the company may face the risk of a decline in market share. 3) Independent intellectual property litigation issues affect the company's overseas business.

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