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【国泰君安证券】山东章鼓新股询价定价分析报告:罗茨鼓风机龙头,积极拓展产品线

國泰君安 ·  Jun 28, 2011 00:00  · Researches

Basic situation: The company is one of the companies with the longest history of producing roots blowers in China. With the roots blower business as the core, the company is actively expanding its product line. It has now developed into a modern machining enterprise integrating the design, processing, manufacturing, sales and service of mechanical products such as centrifugal blowers, complete pneumatic conveying systems, mills, and slurry pumps. The total share capital of the company before issuance was 116 million shares, and the proposed shares are 40 million shares. The shares to be issued account for 25.64% of the total share capital after issuance. Demand analysis: The downstream market space for Roots blowers is vast, and demand from traditional downstream chemical, cement, metallurgy, electric power and other industries is growing steadily. However, with the rapid development of emerging industries, demand for Roots blower products in water treatment and pneumatic conveying industries is rapidly expanding. Industry position: Since 2000, the company has ranked first in the Roots blower industry in various indicators such as output value, sales revenue, profit, and output, and is the leading enterprise in the industry. The company's market share in vinylon and coal chemical industries is more than 90%, and the sewage treatment market share is more than 50%. Competitive advantage: The company has been producing roots blowers since 1969, and is one of the companies with the longest history of producing roots blowers in China. The company has strong technical research and development capabilities. The product range is complete, and the performance and efficacy of some products have surpassed that of foreign products. Fund-raising projects: The company plans to raise 334.48 million yuan to invest in three projects to build new energy-saving roots blowers, centrifugal blowers, and gas transmission production bases. After delivery, the total annual operating income is 574.8 million yuan, and profit after tax is 125.37 million yuan. Profit forecast and investment recommendations: The company's 2011-2013 EPS is expected to be 0.55 yuan, 0.67 yuan, and 0.81 yuan, respectively. Considering the stable growth of the industry in which the company is located and the company's leading position, based on the 2011 performance forecast and 20-23 times the initial PE, the recommended inquiry range is (11,12.7) yuan; based on the 2011 forecast performance and 23 times PE, the reasonable price after listing is 12.7 yuan, fluctuating 10% up and down, and the pricing range on the first day of listing is (11.4,13.9) yuan. Risk warning: the risk of increased market competition and the risk of falling demand in downstream industries subject to regulated policies.

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