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【国泰君安证券】通达动力新股询价报告:矽钢冲压领导者,电机铁心龙头

國泰君安 ·  Apr 18, 2011 00:00  · Researches

The company is a leader in the domestic silicon steel stamping industry. Its products are mainly fixed rotor presses and iron cores for small and medium-sized motors. Since its development in 1993, it has become a leader in the segment, with a market share of about 6%, and the annual silicon steel stamping production capacity has reached more than 80,000 tons. The downstream cycle is obvious, and the economy has returned to an upward trend from the slump of the 2009 economic crisis. The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2007 to 2010 was 380 million, 580 million, 450 million and 610 million respectively, and is expected to achieve revenue of 850 million yuan for the full year of 10 years. Negative year-on-year growth in 2009 was affected by the economic crisis, and market recovery led to a surge in domestic and foreign orders 10 years after entering the market. We judge that the industry has returned to the upward path of prosperity, and the future internal vitality will come from industrialization and urbanization. Looking at segmented industries, wind power products have become new engines, and rail transit, new energy vehicles, and high-efficiency and energy-saving motors are expected to be released. The company's sales revenue for wind turbine rotors and cores in 2007 was only 13.55 million yuan; in the first three quarters of 10 years, it reached 134 million yuan. The share of investment in wind turbine support was as high as 36% of the investment capacity. We expect the industry to maintain 20% growth over the next two to three years, and segments including rail transit, new energy vehicles, and energy-efficient motors are expected to exceed the average growth rate. The proportion of silicon steel sheets purchased in the domestic motor industry continues to grow. Compared with the foreign procurement ratio of up to 97%, China's average in 2009 was 25%, and the number of key large enterprises reached 40%. As competition in the motor industry intensifies, cost pressure increases, and application types in segmented fields increase, the proportion of imported silicon steel sheets will continue to rise, which will help expand the company's revenue scale. Competition in the industry is fierce, and comprehensive strength is reflected in flexibility to cope with new demand and R & D strength. There are nearly 200 silicon steel stamping enterprises with sales of more than 5 million in China, and the company accounts for only about 6% as a leader, reflecting the intense competition in the industry. As downstream demand diversifies, scale advantage and R&D strength will become the core competitiveness that determines victory or failure. We believe that the market is expected to be further concentrated, and as a leading company, it will fully enjoy the benefits of development. Profit forecast: The EPS for 10-12 is expected to be 0.45, 0.68, and 0.87 yuan respectively, and the reasonable inquiry range is between 17.91 and 19.75 yuan, which is 26 to 29 times that of PE in 2011.

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