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【申银万国证券】山东章鼓:立足本业,拓展前行,合理价格11.2-13.44元

申萬宏源 ·  Jun 23, 2011 00:00  · Researches

A leader in the domestic Roots blower segment. The company is one of the leading blower manufacturers in China. With Roots blowers as the core product, the company is actively developing new products such as centrifugal blowers, complete gas transportation equipment, and slurry pumps. According to statistics from the General Machinery Industry Association, the company's Roots blower sales revenue has ranked first in the country for 11 consecutive years. The roots blower industry is developing steadily. The downstream of Roots blowers is mainly concentrated in the petrochemical industry, steel smelting industry, and cement industry. The steady growth rate of the industry has also promoted the steady development of the Roots blower industry. According to statistics from industry associations, the national output value of Roots blowers in 2002 was 269.22 million yuan, and in 2010 the output value was 112.89 million yuan, with a compound growth rate of 19.5%. As a leading enterprise with a market share of 30% in the industry, the year-on-year increase in sales revenue from January to May this year was 20%, in line with the downstream growth trend. Product structure optimization has led to an increase in gross margin. The company's consolidated gross margin from 2008 to 2010 was 26.2%, 29.4%, and 32%, respectively, rising steadily. The company continues to reduce low-margin L series products and expand high-value-added series fans such as ZG. In 2010, the gross margin of this series was 47%. At the same time, the fund-raising and production expansion project will further expand the production volume of this series of blowers, which is expected to further increase the company's gross profit margin. The emerging market sector is worth watching. In addition to traditional downstream industries such as chemicals and steel, the company is actively exploring fields such as water treatment, pneumatic transportation, and gas separation. The market share of the company's products in the water treatment industry reached 15.35% in 2010, and the revenue growth rate of gas transportation reached 38% in 2010. The revenue growth rate of emerging industries will surely surpass traditional industries in the future. The fund-raising project helps the company expand its production capacity, mitigate the current shortage of equipment production capacity, and at the same time help the company enter new fields of centrifugal blowers and gas transmission equipment, and further enhance its position in the industry. The recommended inquiry range is 11.2 to 13.44 yuan. We expect the company's fully diluted EPS in 2011, 2012, and 2013 to be 0.56 yuan, 0.69 yuan, and 0.86 yuan. The reasonable inquiry range is between 11.2 and 13.44 yuan, which corresponds to a price-earnings ratio of 20 to 24 times that of 2011.

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