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【长城证券】北玻股份:进入增长通道的玻璃深加工设备龙头

長城證券 ·  Jun 12, 2014 00:00  · Researches

The investment proposal is expected to be 0.12 yuan, 0.21 yuan, and 0.32 yuan for 2014-2016, respectively, corresponding to dynamic PE45X, 26X, and 17X. The company's tempering equipment products still have room for growth. R&D and sales of low radiation coating equipment, TCO glass equipment, and high-end glass deep processing are being actively promoted, and will become the company's mid-term growth point. We recommend actively paying attention to the company's new changes and giving it a “recommended” rating for the first time. Key investment points Company profile: The company is a leading enterprise in glass deep processing equipment. The production and sales volume of its leading product, flat curved glass tempering units, has continuously ranked first in the industry since 2002, with a cumulative share of about 50% in the domestic market. In addition to traditional products, R&D and sales of low radiation coating equipment, TCO glass equipment, and high-end glass deep processing are being actively promoted, and will become a source of growth for the company in the medium term. The market space for tempered glass equipment is expected to continue to expand: as a type of prestressed glass, chemical or physical methods are used to increase the strength of the glass to form compressive stress on the glass surface, thereby improving the carrying capacity of the glass, making the glass itself have characteristics such as wind pressure resistance, heat resistance, impact resistance, etc., and at the same time, it also has good safety performance. The rapid development of real estate and automobiles in recent years has boosted the demand for tempered glass, and the compound growth rate of tempered glass production in the country reached 30% from 2005 to 2013. We believe that the future demand for tempered glass equipment mainly comes from two aspects: first, the penetration rate of tempered glass in China is still not high, and the usage rate in buildings is only 35%, while overseas is over 80%; second, the requirements for pressure resistance, safety, and heat resistance of tempered glass are constantly increasing, and the market space for high-end tempered glass will gradually open up. The company's market share is expected to increase further: the overall competitive pattern of the glass deep processing equipment industry is basically stable: the company accounts for 50%, overseas 10-15%, Randy 15-20%, and domestic others 10%-20%. The company's sales strategy is “the middle and low end seize the market, and the high end earns profits”. We believe this strategy will win the company more market share. Low-radiation coating equipment is waiting to explode and will become the company's performance accelerator: low-radiation coated glass, abbreviated as low-emission glass or low-E (Low Emissivity Glass) glass, is a film product composed of multiple layers of metals, including silver layers, or other compounds coated on the glass surface. Low-E glass has obvious energy-saving and economic benefits: ordinary low-radiation glass can reflect back more than 80% of far-infrared rays, while the far-infrared reflectivity of ordinary transparent float glass, heat-absorbing glass, and sunlight-controlled coated glass is only about 11%. Since low radiation glass has the property of blocking the transmission of heat radiation, in winter, like a thermal reflector, it reflects most of the heat radiation emitted by indoor heating and indoor objects back into the room, saving heating costs; in summer, it can prevent heat radiation from outdoor floors and buildings from entering the room, saving air conditioning and cooling costs. Although the investment in low-e glass is relatively large, it can recover costs in less than 5 years, and the investment period is relatively short. Based on its 30-year service life, it can save tens of millions of yuan. At present, the penetration rate of low radiation coated glass in China is less than 10%, and there is a clear gap with developed countries (over 80%). As national policies are in place and prices drop brought about by the localization of equipment, the ordinary civilian market will open up, the low radiation coated glass market is expected to explode, and the company will enter a new stage of development. The photovoltaic business brings performance elasticity: TCO films have played a critical role in the development of solar cells. Whether in monocrystalline silicon, polycrystalline silicon, thin-film solar cells, and quantum dot solar cells, TCO films are inseparable. In recent years, the industry has gained sufficient technical control over the use of thin film instead of silicon crystals to manufacture solar cells, and it is expected to develop thin-film solar cells with a conversion rate of 20% that can be put into actual use. The continuing reduction in the cost of thin-film solar cells will truly open up space for demand for thin-film solar cells, even for watches, calculators, curtains, and even clothing. According to the calculation that China will complete a total of 18.5 GW of installed capacity in 2014 and 2015, assuming 10% of the new installations are thin-film batteries, the demand for TCO glass is 15 million square meters. Considering the original production capacity, the rough calculation is that about 30 new TCO devices have been added in the past two years, corresponding to an output value of more than 2 billion yuan. High-end glass deep processing guarantees performance: With the company's equipment advantages, the company's high-end glass deep processing business will also enter a period of rapid growth. Based on the construction progress of Apple's new US headquarters and Abu Dhabi airport, we believe that in the second half of this year, Apple and Abu Dhabi orders will gradually confirm revenue, which is a strong guarantee for the company's performance. Horizontal and vertical expansion is also worth looking forward to: as an industry leader, the company has a clear competitive advantage and plenty of cash on hand. We believe that the conditions for the company's horizontal and vertical expansion are gradually maturing, and expansion is also the only way for the company to continue to grow bigger and stronger. Risk warning: The main business continues to prosper; new product development falls short of expectations.

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