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【湘财证券】恒大高新:业绩低于预期,新能源方向前景看好

湘財證券 ·  Oct 29, 2012 00:00  · Researches

Incidents: The company's operating income for the first three quarters of 2012 was 166 million yuan, down 15.24% year on year; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 28.18 million yuan, down 15.90% year on year, achieving earnings of 0.28 yuan per share. Among them, the third quarter achieved quarterly operating income of 59.7 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.51%; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 9.55 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 25.85%, and earnings per share of 0.09 yuan, which was lower than expected. Investment highlights: Performance below expectations is mainly hampered by poor macroeconomic performance. The company's performance for the first three quarters fell short of expectations. Revenue fell 15% year on year, net profit fell 16% year on year, and gross margin fell from 38% in the same period last year to 32% this year. In addition, the company also predicts a 10-30% reduction in annual results. The main reason for the decline in the company's overall performance is due to the impact of the macroeconomic situation, and the overall performance of the company's customers, such as electricity, steel, cement, etc., has declined, reducing demand for the company's products. However, since entering the third quarter, the profits of most electric power and steel companies have begun to improve. The industry's recovery next year is worth looking forward to. The waste heat power generation project is progressing well, and high performance growth can be expected next year. Since Evergrande New Energy, a wholly-owned subsidiary, announced its establishment on May 29, 2012, it has signed intentional contracts with Shanxi Nanlou Group (30 million) and Shanghai Ryan Energy (12.33 million), with a total amount of 15.33 million yuan, accounting for 57% of total operating income in 2011. There is a high probability that next year's performance will grow well. Waste heat contract management has become a new driving force for the company's future development. Relying on the company's deep accumulation in energy saving and emission reduction over the years, high growth in this direction is worth looking forward to in the future. Land acquisition was completed, and fund-raising projects were gradually launched. Due to the needs of the Nanchang National High-tech Industrial Development Zone planning, the implementation site of the primary metal protection and non-metal protection fund-raising projects has changed, which has affected the progress of construction of part of the project. The company announced that the auction for the land purchase was successful, and the fund-raising project will be carried out smoothly. In the face of delays in the commissioning of fund-raising projects, the company has now invested in 3 new projects as performance growth points for 12 to 13 years: desulfurization chimneys, waste incineration power generation, and military oil tank preservation. Furthermore, the company still has overfunded capital, which can create new growth space for the company in mergers, restructuring, and remanufacturing projects. We are optimistic about the company's long-term development, maintain the “buy” rating, the company's new energy business is developing well, and the number of projects it undertakes is increasing. Furthermore, recent progress in the company's main business has also been strong. However, due to macroeconomic effects, the company's performance this year fell short of expectations, and we lowered the company's EPS from 12 to 14 to 0.42, 0.67, and 0.85 yuan. The company's “buy” rating was maintained, but the company's target price was lowered to 14.74 yuan/share.

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