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【东海证券】通达动力:专业化趋势和高端客户优势成就未来王者

東海證券 ·  Jan 10, 2012 00:00  · Researches

The trend of specialization in the motor industry has brought huge and stable demand. Currently, the proportion of static rotor cores in China's motor industry is only about 25%, far lower than the 97% outsourcing ratio of foreign-funded enterprises. As the trend of industry specialization continues to deepen, we predict that the proportion of outsourcing in the domestic motor industry will reach 30% to 40% in 2014. At that time, the output value of the entire stator core industry was about 108.6 billion yuan, the capacity of the specialized market was about 32.6 billion to 43.4 billion yuan, and the five-year compound growth rate of specialized market demand was 19% to 26%. The advantage of high-end customers is an important guarantee for winning future competition. As an industry leader, the company is in a leading position in the industry in terms of production capacity, technology research and development, product quality, market share, etc., and its domestic and foreign high-end customer advantages far surpass other enterprises, and will become the biggest beneficiaries in the process of industry specialization and become future kings. Future growth has a continuous driving force, and the development of the company's business with long-term investment value will benefit mainly from the expansion of production capacity in fund-raising projects in the near future; in the medium term, it will benefit from the rapid development of high-end motors such as high-efficiency motors, wind turbines, and new energy vehicle motors; and in the long run, it will benefit from international industrial transfer and the process of industry specialization. Driven by sustainability, the company's future performance will maintain steady and rapid growth, making it an excellent enterprise with long-term investment value. Performance is highly elastic, and the economic growth rate bottoming out and stabilizing indicates the best time to buy, and the company's operating income is extremely flexible, dramatically amplifying changes in the GDP growth rate. The adjustment of the central bank's monetary policy on November 30, 2011 indicates that the macroeconomic economy will stabilize at the end of the first quarter and beginning of the second quarter of 2012, and that the growth rate of the company's performance will also rise rapidly due to its high elasticity. This will be the best time to buy. Profit forecast: The company's 2011-2013 EPS is expected to be 0.55 yuan, 0.78 yuan, and 0.98 yuan respectively, and PE corresponding to the current stock price is 22 times, 15 times, and 12 times, respectively. According to a valuation of 20 times the 2012 EPS, the corresponding six-month target price is 15.54 yuan, and the profit margin is 31.91%. Risk warning: The company's performance is highly elastic, which poses the risk of short-term volatility. It is expected that the company's operating income will experience negative growth in the first quarter of 2012, but it will not damage the company's long-term investment value.

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