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【申银万国证券】八菱科技:内资汽车散热器龙头生产商,建议询价区间29.04~34.32元

申萬宏源 ·  Jun 7, 2011 00:00  · Researches

The recommended inquiry range is 29.04 to 34.32 yuan. We expect the company's fully diluted EPS to be 1.32 yuan, 1.74 yuan, and 2.34 yuan after issuance in 11, 12, and 13. Based on the valuation situation of comparable companies in the contract industry and considering the company's relatively determined performance growth, we think a reasonable inquiry range is between 29.04 and 34.32 yuan, corresponding to a price-earnings ratio of 22 times to 26 times in 2011. The company is a leading manufacturer of domestic automobile radiators. In 2010, the revenue of the company's aluminum radiators, copper radiators and heaters accounted for 63.6%, 10.3% and 16.6% of the company's main business revenue, respectively. The company has outstanding profitability. Its gross margin has remained above 25% in the past three years, and its market share ranks second in the industry and first among domestic enterprises. The company's future growth is extremely clear: in 2010, the company developed 118 heat exchange products such as radiators, heaters, oil coolers, and intercoolers, of which 16 were mass-produced, and the remaining 102 models are currently in the sample testing stage. The number of new products put into production in the next few years will guarantee the company's performance growth. At the same time, the company's module supply ratio will increase year by year in the next three years. It is expected that in 2011-2013, the company's modular supply ratio will be 75%, 80%, and 90%, respectively. Furthermore, relying on the three core technologies, while consolidating the field of automotive heat exchange, the company will expand into new fields such as computer CPU water-cooling systems, EMERSON high-pressure heat exchanger products, military vehicle heat exchangers, and heat exchangers for gas wall-mounted furnaces to cultivate new profit growth points. Fund-raising projects help the company solve production capacity bottlenecks: the capital raised this time is mainly invested in the following two projects, including: 1) a new automobile radiator car heater production line project; and 2) a technology center upgrade and construction project. The fund-raising project will increase the production capacity of 1.6 million aluminum radiators and 900,000 heaters per year. It is expected that the production capacity of the company's fund-raising projects will begin to be released in 2011, and full production will be achieved in 2013. At the same time, the company's new radiator production lines are all flexible production lines, which can produce various types of copper or aluminum radiator products according to market demand, helping the company to further improve its ability to withstand risks. The main risk. Automobile sales fell short of expectations, and progress in the commissioning of fund-raising projects fell short of expectations.

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