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【中信证券】闽发铝业新股定价报告:先做强后做大的海西铝型材龙头

中信證券 ·  Apr 28, 2011 00:00  · Researches

A leading aluminum profile company in the Haixi sector. The company is located in Fujian and specializes in the production of aluminum profiles for construction and industrial aluminum profiles, forming a market pattern where the Fujian market is the main, exports go hand in hand with developed regions in East China; the optimal sales radius covers all 20 member cities in the Haixi Economic Zone, which will benefit from the great development of the regional economy. In 2010, the company's sales revenue was 595 million yuan, accounting for 21.48% of Fujian's aluminum profile production; the overall gross margin was stable at over 30% in previous years. The actual controller, Huang Tianhuo, accounted for 42.73% of the total share capital after issuance. Industry development opportunities brought about by competition and product structure optimization. Currently, the concentration of China's aluminum profile market is scattered, and the product structure is unreasonable: low-end products are seriously homogenized, value added is low, output is large and oversupply is high, market competition is fierce, while investment in research and development of middle and high-end products is insufficient, and they still need to be imported, so structural contradictions are prominent. In 2009, domestic consumption of aluminum profiles in the industrial sector accounted for only%, while European and American countries already accounted for more than 50%. The restructuring of the aluminum profile industry will increase the proportion of profiles in the processing industry with high added value, bringing opportunities to middle and high-end product manufacturers. Fundraising projects and profitability. The funds raised this time are mainly used for the 40,000-ton aluminum alloy profile production line project, including 14,600 tons of industrial profiles and 254,000 tons of construction profiles. The construction period is expected to be 1 year. The project can be fully produced 3 years after completion, and the payback period is estimated to be about 5.5 years. The project will open up production capacity bottlenecks in the company's development and optimize the product structure, which is expected to further increase the company's market share. Stronger first, then bigger, the company's business follows the trend. The company has always focused on the production and sales of aluminum profiles. Over the years, construction aluminum profiles have been the main source of revenue. In recent years, along with the company's R&D advantages, efforts have been made to develop high-value-added industrial profiles. Their share has increased year by year, optimizing the profit structure. With the construction and investment of this fund-raising project, the company is expected to adapt to the development of the industry and truly become stronger and bigger. risk factors. There is a risk that the price of raw aluminum ingots will fluctuate; the company's project construction progress has been slower than expected, and processing fees and processing costs have fluctuated greatly. Profit forecasts and valuations. According to production capacity investment progress and related business forecasts, it is estimated that the diluted EPS for 2011/2012/2013 after issuance by the company was 0.46/0.66/0.” yuan, respectively. Combined with the valuation of comparable companies in the secondary market and the cash flow discount method, the company's reasonable value range was 15,118 yuan, corresponding to 33-39 times the 2011 PE.

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