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【东兴证券】闽发铝业调研快报:海西铝材龙头 募投项目稳步推进

東興證券 ·  Mar 22, 2012 00:00  · Researches

Incident: Recently, I conducted field research on the company and exchanged views on the company's business development and business priorities with relevant company personnel. Opinion: 1. Leading fund-raising projects for Haixi aluminum profiles are progressing steadily. Minfa Aluminum is a large-scale aluminum profile manufacturer in the Haixi region. The company's main business is aluminum profile processing, and aluminum bars are produced through production processes and processes such as extrusion and surface treatment to produce products for use in the construction industry, transportation industry, consumer durables industry, machinery and equipment manufacturing industries, etc. Currently, the company has an aluminum profile production capacity of 36,500 tons/year, with a domestic market share of 0.36%. The main products include construction aluminum profiles and industrial aluminum profiles. The production lines are basically common, but there are only differences in specific processes. Construction aluminum profiles accounted for 1/3 of the company's products in 2011, industrial aluminum profiles accounted for 1/3, and exports accounted for 1/3; of these, exports included two categories of aluminum profiles for construction and industrial use. Judging from the business situation in 2011 and 2012, the company's industrial aluminum profiles grew rapidly, and the growth rate surpassed that of construction aluminum profiles. The company is currently implementing a fund-raising project to purchase related equipment. It is estimated that 20,000 tons of aluminum alloy profile production capacity will be released in 2012. The company is located in the core area of the Haixi Economic Zone and is expected to benefit from the demand for industrial aluminum profiles driven by the construction of the Haixi Economic Zone. The company's main competitor in the province is Nanping Aluminum, whose aluminum processing capacity exceeds 200,000 tons/year. Compared with Nanping Aluminum, the company still has a certain gap in terms of industrial chain integration and scale, but in terms of sales area, the company has a stronger competitive advantage over Nanping Aluminum. 2. The company's product demand is limited due to the fact that the company's main product, construction aluminum profiles, are mainly used in the field of construction decoration. In the context of the country's macro-control of the real estate industry, downstream demand has been affected to a certain extent, but the company's construction aluminum profile is mainly aimed at the commercial real estate sector, mainly project construction procurement. Furthermore, as the urbanization process accelerates, the construction of affordable housing and affordable housing construction efforts increase, and “building materials go to the countryside” to encourage new rural construction, etc., the demand for the company's construction aluminum profiles is only limited by real estate regulation. Currently, the company's operating rate is close to 100%, and downstream demand is stable. At the same time, the company is actively carrying out industrial upgrading and product restructuring, gradually increasing the sales share of industrial aluminum profiles, especially industrial surface treatment materials, in the company's products, and at the same time increasing market development for affordable housing and construction profiles for urban markets, so as to counter the negative impact of the slowdown in real estate investment growth in some regions on the company's production and operation. The pricing method for the company's industry is “aluminum ingot price+processing fee”. When the price of aluminum ingots fluctuates, the company has a certain ability to pass on costs. This model can resolve the cost risk posed to the enterprise by changes in upstream raw material prices to a certain extent. Since there is limited room to increase the level of processing fees for the company's products, the company's future profit growth will mainly come from an increase in the production and sales volume of aluminum profile products. Later, the company's production capacity will increase from the current 36,500 tons to 76,500 tons. Judging from the production capacity structure of new products, the company will focus on increasing the production capacity of industrial aluminum profile products and continuously optimizing the product structure. 3. It is clearly resistant to cyclicality and enjoys steady growth in downstream demand. As global economic growth and the use of aluminum profiles continues to expand, global consumption of aluminum profiles increased from about 8.69 million tons in 2001 to about 15.5 million tons in 2009, with a compound annual growth rate of about 7.5%. It is estimated that by 2012, global consumption of aluminum profiles will reach about 16.69 million tons. From a regional perspective, consumption in major regions of the world showed different trends from 2001 to 2011. China's consumption ratio rose rapidly, while Europe and North America showed a downward trend. As of 2011, China's consumption accounted for 47% of global consumption, and China has developed into a major consumer of aluminum profiles. In terms of application areas, the construction industry is still the main field of application of aluminum profiles, far surpassing other fields. Consumption is rising year by year, accounting for more than 63% of total consumption as of 2010. At the same time, the consumption of aluminum profiles in the transportation industry and the machinery and equipment industry already occupies an important position. By region, developed regions such as North America and Europe accounted for more than 50% of the average consumption of aluminum profiles in the industrial sector in 2010, while China's consumption of aluminum profiles in the industrial sector was only 32%, and the proportion of consumption in the industrial sector was relatively low. We believe that as aluminum profiles continue to expand in the field of industrial applications in China, the consumption of products will also increase. With the development of lightweight, electronic and electric power, and machinery manufacturing industries at home and abroad, demand for medium- and high-strength industrial aluminum profiles, pipes and bars is growing rapidly, and the proportion of profile production in China's aluminum industry is increasing year by year. According to forecasts, as the degree of industrialization in China increases, the consumption of aluminum industrial materials will continue to grow, and its share in the aluminum extrusion industry will rise from the current 30% to about 45-50% in 2012. Therefore, from a long-term perspective, aluminum industrial materials will become the main development direction of China's aluminum extrusion materials industry, and will definitely become the mainstream of aluminum extrusion products in China in the future. The company is actively adjusting its product structure to expand the production and sales volume of industrial aluminum profiles, and the company will benefit from a steady increase in downstream demand. Conclusion: With the gradual production of the 40,000-ton aluminum alloy profile production line of the company's fund-raising project, the production capacity of the company's construction aluminum profiles and industrial aluminum profiles will increase steadily. The company's production of construction aluminum profiles and industrial aluminum profiles in 2012 is expected to be 32,000 tons and 22,000 tons, respectively. The company's fund-raising projects will be fully put into operation in 2013. It is estimated that the company's EPS in 2011, 2012, and 2013 will be 0.373, 0.571, and 0.819 yuan respectively. We are optimistic about the company's long-term investment value and have given a “recommended” investment rating for the first time.

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