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【东兴证券】群兴玩具调研快报:调整年夯实基础等待产能投放

東興證券 ·  Jan 13, 2012 00:00  · Researches

Conclusion: The company's 2012 year is an adjustment year, and product and channel adjustment measures are being actively promoted; however, it will take time to contribute to performance, so we predict stable operations in 2012. The inflection point in performance may occur after the new production capacity is put into operation in the second half of 2013. We forecast that in 2012-2013, exports will increase by 8% and 12%, respectively; domestic sales will increase by 15% and 20%, respectively. Operating income increased by 11.3% and 16%; gross margin and period expense ratios remained relatively stable, and net profit increased by 14.5% and 19%, respectively. The 2011-2013 EPS was 0.43 yuan, 0.50 yuan, and 0.59 yuan. The current stock price is $12.18. The corresponding 2011-2013 EPS is 28.32, 24.36, and 20.64 times, respectively. The company's current valuation is on par with the industry average. We gave it a price-earnings ratio of 28 times in 2012, corresponding to the target price of 14 yuan. Give an investment rating of “Recommended”.

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