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【安信证券】闽发铝业:快速成长的海西铝型材龙头

安信證券 ·  May 2, 2011 00:00  · Researches

Summary of the report: Aluminum profile leader in the Haixi sector. The company is located in Nan'an City, in the center of the Haixi sector. It has an excellent geographical location and is the most active economic region in Fujian Province. With the approval of the Haixi Economic Zone development plan, strong impetus has been added to the development of the regional economy. However, there are few aluminum profile manufacturers in Fujian Province, mainly the company and Nanping Aluminum, two major manufacturers. Fujian is a net importer of aluminum profiles. The company's capacity expansion has a lot of market space and can provide customers with personalized products and services within the region. Aluminization has become a trend, and there are broad prospects for the development of aluminum profiles. Due to the lightness, plasticity and low price of aluminum, aluminization is becoming a trend, penetrating into all sectors of the national economy to replace other materials. In terms of aluminum profiles for construction, aluminum alloy doors and windows have replaced plastic steel, iron and wooden doors and windows with their outstanding advantages and have become the mainstream varieties in the current market. In terms of industrial applications, aluminum has excellent characteristics such as light weight, high strength, not easy to deform, and corrosion resistance, etc., which determine its broad application prospects in the industrial field. The cost advantages of industrial aluminum profiles will form a strong replacement for copper products in the power wire industry; in addition, aluminum alloys have the obvious advantage of being lightweight and can meet the requirements of lightweight and thin-walled industrial products, and the replacement of steel is also becoming increasingly apparent, especially in the aerospace field. From 2001 to 2009, global consumption of aluminum profiles increased from 8.7 million tons to 16.8 million tons, with a compound annual growth rate of 8.57%. The company's product structure has been optimized, and the proportion of industrial aluminum profiles has increased. The company is one of the few enterprises in the domestic industry that first got involved in the field of industrial profiles. Through product restructuring, the share of the company's industrial profiles in main business revenue has been steadily increasing year by year, far ahead of other similar industries. By increasing the proportion of industrial profiles, the company's product structure is further optimized, which not only enhances the company's profitability, but also enhances the company's ability to withstand risks in changing market conditions. Fund-raising projects expand production capacity and increase profitability. The company's fund-raising project will double the company's production capacity, and the construction period will be one year. As the fund-raising project is put into operation, the company's scale will continue to expand and profitability will increase over the next 2-3 years. The fund-raising projects are mainly aimed at improving the production capacity of the company's existing products and adjusting the product structure. The share of industrial profiles will continue to rise, and the gross margin will also rise slightly. Profit forecasting and valuation. We expect the company's net profit to grow at 47.8%, 53.1%, and 27.7% year-on-year in 2011-2013, and the EPS after full dilution based on the total share capital of 171.8 million shares after the IPO is 0.45 yuan, 0.69 yuan, and 0.88 yuan. We selected Ropskine, Liyuan Aluminum, and Xinjiang Zhonghe from the aluminum sector in the A-share market as a reference, and gave the company a PE level of 33.6 times and 24 times respectively from 2011 to 2012, and a reasonable pricing range of 15.12-18 yuan. Risk warning: (1) Market competition has intensified and costs have risen, and gross margin has declined; (2) the commissioning of additional production capacity to develop new target consumers has been blocked; (3) customer concentration is high, and there is a high dependency on a single customer.

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