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【华安证券】益盛药业:人参价格上涨,饮片项目启动

華安證券 ·  Feb 20, 2014 00:00  · Researches

Main opinion: The price of ginseng maintained an upward trend. The price of ginseng rose 20% from the end of last year. The price of raw ginseng was 650-750 yuan/kg in the four ginseng trading markets. We expect ginseng prices to maintain the upward trend: from a supply perspective, Jilin Province controlled the cultivation area of ginseng in the forest, floods in Northeast China last year, and the ginseng growth cycle was long, and the supply of ginseng is still tight this year; second, demand for downstream ginseng increased by 3-5 times, and large pharmaceutical companies increased their ginseng procurement to develop the downstream ginseng industry. The company currently has sufficient stocks of ginseng, and the continuous expansion of non-forest ginseng projects will clearly benefit from the rise in ginseng prices. The company's ginseng tablet project started. Previously, due to relocation and other reasons, the project was not completed according to schedule due to relocation and other reasons. As the land issue for project construction will be resolved and construction will begin next month, the ginseng tablet project will commence. The company's deep-processed ginseng tablets and ginseng food products will be put on the market together to promote the Yisheng Chinese ginseng brand, gradually reflecting the company's advantages in the entire industry chain of participation in the business. After delivery, the project is expected to produce 480 tons of processed ginseng per year (200 tons of dried ginseng, 130 tons of dried ginseng, and 150 tons of molded red ginseng), achieving annual sales revenue of 290 million yuan and profit of 78 million yuan. Driven by three wheels, the pharmaceutical industry, and the bee industry, the main business of the extended industrial chain company is currently mainly R&D, production and sales of proprietary Chinese medicines. This business is relatively stable. Some of the raw materials come from ginseng fruit, leaves, and stems, and the gross margin is high. The company's future plan is that its revenue from participation exceeds that of the pharmaceutical industry, while using Changbaishan Fengye resources to develop the honey industry. The company currently has abundant cash flow. It is expected that in the future, it will expand the industrial chain through mergers and acquisitions, and at the same time cooperate with enterprises with resource advantages and terminal channel advantages to develop ginseng and Fengye products. Earnings forecasting and valuation. The main reason for the company's stock price adjustments in the early stages was due to drug tenders, lower than expected drug sales performance in the fourth quarter of last year, and a slowdown in the tablet project. We believe that the company's performance will gradually improve as drug tenders accelerate, the tablet project enters the actual implementation stage, and ginseng prices rise. Sales revenue from 2013 to 2015 is estimated to be 675 million yuan, 852 million yuan, and 1.05 billion yuan, respectively, with earnings of 0.45 yuan, 0.54 yuan, and 0.66 yuan per share, with a target price of 30 yuan, corresponding to 14-year PE56, maintaining the purchase rating.

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