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【中航证券】益盛药业:药业稳定、参业长远

中航證券 ·  Dec 18, 2013 00:00  · Researches

Relying on the rich herbal medicine resources of Changbai Mountain, Yisheng Pharmaceutical has formed its own unique competitive advantage in the market and has maintained a relatively stable level of profit. Since its listing, the company has used the pharmaceutical business as a basis, made full use of the advantages of raising capital, centered on the ginseng industry chain and health products business, and has steadily completed the strategic layout of the three major businesses of the pharmaceutical industry, participation, and bee industry: Short-term view of the pharmaceutical industry: the pharmaceutical industry is the main support for the company's current performance, and key varieties of Qingkailing injections and biotech injections remain in the new national basic drug catalogue, but due to sufficient market competition, there is a certain period of price reduction in the future ; The capsule series is expected to maintain continuous and steady growth in various aspects, such as market expansion in the cardiovascular field, obvious competitive advantages of exclusive varieties, and the effectiveness of the company's marketing reforms. Looking at the ginseng industry in the medium term, the company, as an advocate of domestic non-forest ginseng cultivation, has been putting it into practice since 2007 to obtain good results. This year, the first batch of non-forest ginseng entered the harvest period, and the quality also all met national standards. As the domestic ginseng market continues to rise, we believe that upstream planting enterprises represented by the company will undoubtedly be the first to benefit. On the basis of deep cultivation of raw materials, the company is also actively expanding the deep processing industry downstream of the ginseng industry chain. It is expected that with the listing and sale of ginseng tablets and health food, the company's advantages in the entire industry chain participating in the industry will gradually be reflected in its performance. Furthermore, as the company controls the entire process of ginseng breeding, cultivation, and processing, the company has the potential to build a Korean ginseng brand and enter the high-end ginseng market. In the future, this will also be the focus of our attention. Long-term view of the beekeeping industry: The company's beekeeping industry focuses on developing new functional foods combining ginseng and honey, and the focus is still on the health products market. In the future, as the living standards of domestic residents improve and the number of sub-healthy people increases, we should also note that the company, as a traditional pharmaceutical company, still has many problems such as product reserves, brand positioning, and marketing that need to be solved in the short term. It is expected that this part of the business will contribute only a limited amount to performance in the short term. Investment ratings: We predict that the company's EPS for 13-15 will be 0.46 yuan, 0.52 yuan, and 0.67 yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 4.80%, 12.90%, and 28.42%, respectively, and corresponding dynamic price-earnings ratios of 56, 49, and 38 times, respectively. We believe: on the one hand, with the listing and sale of the company's ginseng tablets and health food products next year, the advantages of the company's entire ginseng industry chain will gradually be reflected in performance; on the other hand, our analysis believes that by implementing process control in the entire ginseng industry chain, the company is gradually expanding from “raw materials” to “brands” and is expected to expand in the field of high-end ginseng products in the future, so for the first time, the company was given a “buy” rating, with a target price of 31.20 yuan. Risk warning: upstream planting risk; product price reduction risk; brand building risk; risk of sales restrictions being lifted.

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