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【光大证券】佳隆股份:受益于行业高速增长的鸡精鸡粉第一民族品牌

光大證券 ·  Oct 15, 2010 00:00  · Researches

The number one national brand in the chicken essence and chicken powder industry: The company is the number one national brand enterprise in the chicken essence and chicken powder industry in China. It is mainly engaged in R&D, production and sales of chicken powder and chicken powder products. In 2009 and the first half of 2010, the company achieved sales of 104 and 0.5 million tons of chicken essence chicken powder, respectively, and achieved sales of 189 million yuan and 97 million yuan respectively. The company's total sales volume of chicken essence and chicken powder ranked in the top three in the industry, with a comprehensive market share of 7%; among them, the sales volume of the company's dominant product, chicken essence, ranked second in the country, with a market share of 19%. Benefiting from the industry's rapid annual growth rate of more than 25%: Chicken essence and chicken powder are third-generation condiments with rich nutrition and delicious flavor, and are typical examples of the transformation of traditional condiments to modern condiments in China. From 05 to 08, the annual sales volume of chicken essence and chicken powder in China increased rapidly from 82,000 tons to 148,000 tons, which is in line with an average annual growth rate of 21.75%. As people's concept of healthy eating and demand for consumption upgrades increases, the rate of replacement of chicken essence and chicken powder with MSG will gradually accelerate in the future. It is estimated that in the next 5-10 years, the annual sales volume of chicken essence and chicken powder products in China may reach more than 500,000 tons, which is in line with an average annual growth rate of 25%. As a benchmark enterprise with leading technology, excellent quality, and a sound marketing network in the industry, the company will surely enjoy the rapid growth of the industry. The advantages of the entire industry chain and differentiated marketing advantages are obvious: as one of the few enterprises in the industry that has mastered the production technology and process of key semi-finished products, the company has an obvious cost advantage, so it can provide medium to high-end products at mid-range prices and fully enjoy the price advantage. Furthermore, in terms of marketing, the company has implemented a differentiated marketing strategy, focusing on the catering industry, bypassing first-tier cities, which are the core markets of foreign giants, and formed a refined network dominated by second- and third-tier cities. At the same time, the company continued to segment the market and operate in a flat manner, and continued to sink its marketing channels. The number of Tier 1 dealers surged from 88 at the end of 2006 to 668 in June '10. With the further flattening of the company's marketing channels, we expect the company's sales revenue to achieve a compound annual growth of nearly 30% over the next three years. The fund-raising project addresses production capacity bottlenecks. The capital raised during this listing was mainly invested in the construction project of a new production base with an annual output of 20,000 tons of chicken essence and chicken powder, a technology research and development center construction project, and a marketing network construction project. After the fund-raising project is completed, the company's production capacity of chicken essence and chicken powder will increase from the current 12,000 tons to 32,000 tons per year. The company's production capacity has been seriously insufficient in the past two years, and the capacity utilization rate has exceeded 100%. The commissioning of the fund-raising project will completely solve the company's main development obstacle. It is estimated that in 2012, the company's sales revenue will more than double to about 500 million yuan compared to 2009. The recommended inquiry range is calculated based on the diluted share capital after issuance. We expect the company's EPS for 2010-2012 to be 0.61 yuan, 0.82 yuan, and 1.21 yuan, respectively. Considering the company's fundamental level, future capacity expansion, and the valuation of SME listed companies, we believe that the company's reasonable value range should be 40-45 times the price-earnings ratio of 2010 after dilution. The estimated reasonable price of the company is 24.40-27.45 yuan, and the recommended inquiry range for the primary market is 26.84-30.20 yuan.

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