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【华泰证券】宝馨科技:子公司业务爆发,全年业绩增速逐季提升

華泰證券 ·  Apr 27, 2015 00:00  · Researches

Incident: Baoxin Technology released its 2015 quarterly report. In the first quarter, the company achieved total operating revenue of 127 million yuan, an increase of 58% over the previous year, and net profit of 15.63 million yuan, an increase of 135% over the previous year. After deducting net profit of 15.48 million yuan, an increase of 157.6% over the previous year. Basic earnings per share were $0.06. The company also predicted that the 2015 H1 performance range would be 3054.75-356.88 million yuan, an increase of 200-250% over the previous year. The subsidiary's performance exploded, and the annual performance growth rate increased quarter by quarter. The final results announced by the company for the first quarter were above the median of the forecast range (the deduction did not exceed the upper edge of the range). The main reason was the financial merger between Youzhi Technology and Shanghai Apani, which was acquired last year, as well as the sharp increase in the performance of the subsidiary Youzhi Technology and improvements in the parent company's traditional business (Shanghai Apani had no contribution in the first quarter). Looking at the whole year, we believe that benefiting from the sharp increase in smog and haze control pressure, the company's Youzhi Technology and Shanghai Apani business are expected to continue to explode. In particular, Apani's high-pressure electrode boiler renovation business is in line with local government demand to ban coal-fired boilers, and project orders are overwhelmed. We judge that with the gradual delivery of the first batch of Shanghai Apani projects in 2014 (confirmation in the second quarter is a probable event), Apani will begin contributing to performance in the second quarter. The quarterly increase in the company's annual performance growth rate is a definite event, and a further increase in the mid-report performance range to 200-250% is the clearest sign. The incentive plan provides short-term safety support for stock prices. The company recently announced the first option incentive plan. According to the plan, the compound growth rate of the company's performance over the next 4 years will not be less than 80%, and the exercise price will be 24.6 yuan/share. The company launched its first option incentive plan in a big way before the equity change was completed (the delivery has only completed normal procedures, and the company's control has substantially changed). Whether in terms of launch (just over 1 month since the signing of the second equity transfer agreement), incentives, and coverage, it far exceeded market expectations, reflecting the strong will of the new shareholders and management to promote the transformation and upgrading of the company, while the apparently stringent high share price actually shows that the company is super confident in future high performance growth and provides secure support for secondary market share prices in the short term. Investors are still recommended to buy it! We expect the company's net profit for 2015-2017 to be 1.48, 2.29, and 311 million yuan, respectively, up 161%, 36%, and 23% year-on-year. The corresponding EPS is 0.53 yuan, 0.83 yuan, and 1.12 yuan, respectively. The current stock price corresponding to PE is 54 times, 35 times, and 25 times, respectively. The company's “buy” rating was maintained considering the huge market space of Shanghai Apani's business and continued expectations of mergers and acquisitions after the company's share change. Risk warning: Apani's project progress is low, and Youzhi Technology's sales fall short of expectations

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