Main points of investment:
In the first quarter of 2012, the company achieved operating income of 725 million yuan, an increase of 7.80% over the same period last year. The net profit belonging to shareholders of listed companies was 23 million yuan, an increase of 3.60% over the same period last year, corresponding to basic earnings per share of 0.06 yuan. The company's performance growth is mainly due to the increase in production capacity after the commissioning of the 180 project, as well as the reduction in the price of raw materials.
Out of the trough, performance back to the growth track. In 2011, the company's performance was poor, and the net profit belonging to the owner of the parent company decreased by 39.04% compared with the same period last year, mainly due to two reasons: 1) the depreciation expense was higher in the year when the 180 project was put into production, and the production capacity was not fully released, resulting in high dilution costs; 2) due to the rise in the price of raw materials, while the price of oil and casing did not rise synchronously, the gross profit margin of the industry generally declined. These two negatives will disappear in 2012. In 2012, 180 project capacity will be released by more than 80%, and cost amortization tends to be normalized. On the other hand, the winning price of oil casing this year is basically the same as that of last year, while the probability of a small decline in the price of raw material billet is greater, and the gross profit margin of oil casing will increase. Judging from the company's first-quarter data, which is consistent with our judgment, the company's comprehensive gross profit margin in the first quarter was 9.23%, up 0.47 percentage points from the same period last year.
The release of production capacity ensures performance growth in the past two years. The 180 projects raised by the company were put into production last year, and the over-raised projects were completed and put into production in March this year. The company's output in 2011 is about 400000 tons, which is expected to be 20.
It reached 520000 tons in December and 650000 tons in 2013. From the point of view of the company's product structure and market coverage, we don't think there is much problem in production digestion. In 2012, the sales pattern of the company is expected to be as follows: 150000 tons in the domestic market and 200000 tons in the foreign market, and the remaining 170000 tons are non-oil well pipe products, including high-pressure boiler tubes, coalbed methane pipes, hydraulic pillar tubes, etc., which are in great demand in the market.
Investment advice: from 2012 to 2014, the company's EPS is expected to be 0.62,0.74,0.85 yuan respectively. The current stock price corresponds to PE23 times in 2012, which is recommended for the first time. It is worth noting that the company's first quarterly report revealed that Shouguang Baolong Petroleum equipment Co., Ltd., a holding subsidiary, set up a small loan company, which we think may become the hype theme of the market.
Risk hint: macroeconomic growth declines faster than expected
