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【方正证券】大康牧业:规模扩张、拓展下游保障2012业绩增长

方正證券 ·  Apr 18, 2012 00:00  · Researches

1. The rise in pig prices and listing volume drives performance growth, benefiting from the boom in the industry, and the sales volume and prices of the company's products have increased by varying degrees. In 2011, 113,600 fattening pigs were listed, up 27.09% year on year, with an average gross profit of 290 yuan, an increase of 86.53%; 73,400 young pigs, up 20.94% year on year, with an average gross profit of 147 yuan, an increase of 202.35%; 56,000 pigs were released, down 10.46% year on year, with an average gross profit of 477 yuan, the same as last year. The 23,000-head pig project and 400,000-head slaughter project have gradually reached production guarantee performance. The company has successively acquired all assets of Huaihua Xinkang Animal Husbandry, Shimen Shengwangda Pig Breeding Farm, Ping'an Pig Farm in Li County, and part of the assets of 14 pig farms, including Wu Shaohua in Xupu County, to guarantee the release of 300,000 pigs. Strengthen the upstream, introduce a batch of original British ancestral pigs, reduce costs and risk of the epidemic, and enhance the company's profitability and overall competitiveness. The 400,000 pig slaughter and processing project has been successfully put into operation, expanding the breeding industry chain and building a strong line of food safety defense, laying a good foundation for the company's long-term development. 3. In 2012, industry profits are still guaranteed. Based on indicators such as the 2011 sow supplement and piglet diarrhea situation, we believe that pig prices will remain at 7-8.5 yuan/kg throughout 2012, average profit from self-breeding and self-breeding will remain fluctuating between 200-400 yuan/head, and the animal husbandry industry is still very profitable. In the short term, pig prices are expected to rebound. Due to the diarrhea epidemic before the Spring Festival, a large number of piglets died. According to the six-month pig growth cycle, the supply of commercial pigs will be insufficient as early as the end of April or the beginning of May, thus driving the rebound in pork prices, and pig prices are expected to usher in a new round of rising prices. 4. Profit Forecast and Investment Rating We believe that the aquaculture industry is still very profitable in 2012. The company's farming scale has increased and the slaughter business has begun to contribute profits. It is estimated that the 2012-2014 EPS is 0.42, 0.56, and 0.75 yuan, corresponding to PE29, 22, and 16 times, maintaining an investment rating of “increased holdings”. 5. Risk factors: risk of large fluctuations in pig prices, risk of the epidemic.

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