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【招商证券】佳隆股份IPO投资价值分析:聚焦餐饮业、扁平化运营的鸡精鸡粉公司

招商證券 ·  Nov 1, 2010 00:00  · Researches

The market for chicken essence and chicken powder is developing rapidly: Chicken essence and chicken powder are a type of compound condiment. With people's living standards improving, sales of chicken essence and chicken powder have maintained a growth rate of more than 20% over the past five years. Currently, the total sales volume is about 200,000 to 250,000 tons, and the market size is 3.5 to 4 billion yuan. The industry is still in its early stages of growth, and there is still plenty of room for growth. The company is tied for third in terms of competitiveness in the industry: the current competitive trend in the chicken essence and chicken powder industry is showing a situation where the two strongest players are divided and the two leaders join forces. Taitale relies on brand advantage products to control the chicken essence market in East China and most regions of the country, while Knorr has an advantage in South China and North China with its main product, chicken powder. Jialong, on the other hand, has seized the opportunity for rapid development through a successful flat marketing strategy. Currently, its comprehensive competitiveness is tied with Wuhan Asia Pacific Group and Sichuan Haoji Group for third place, and it is still unable to compete with the two giants. Three factors have contributed to the rapid growth of the company: the company positioned its main market in the middle and high-end catering industry, and avoided the dominant regions of major competitors such as East China and South China; sinking through channels to explore the markets in second-tier and third-tier cities and counties; continuous innovation of technological advantages can also enable the company to maintain a price advantage in competition with big brands and maintain a quality advantage in competition with small and medium-sized brands. A company's brand awareness needs to be opened up through listing. The fund-raising project solved the company's production capacity bottleneck: The company faced a production capacity bottleneck. Since 2007, the capacity utilization rate has basically remained above 100%. As the business expanded, production capacity gradually became the main factor limiting the company's development. The main investment direction of the capital raised this time is the 20,000 ton chicken essence and chicken powder production base project. The completion of this project will significantly increase the company's production capacity and solve the problem of insufficient production capacity. We gave the company a stock price position of 25.6-32 yuan, and the stock price may rush to 40-50 yuan on the first day. We expect the company's 10-12 EPS to be 0.64, 0.82, and 1.03 yuan respectively. Based on the valuation levels of listed companies in the condiment and food additives industry, the company will be given 40-50 times PE for 10 years. Risk warning: Taitale and Knorr may compete head-on in the Jialong market; raw material prices fluctuate greatly.

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