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【华鑫证券】大康牧业:围绕募投项目产能逐步释放

華鑫證券 ·  Aug 24, 2011 00:00  · Researches

From January to June 2011, the company achieved operating income of 233 million yuan, an increase of 18.4% year on year; achieved operating profit of 31.45 million yuan, up 95.2% year on year, achieved total profit of 35.56 million yuan, up 107.1% year on year; realized net profit attributable to owners of the parent company was 35.56 million yuan, an increase of 107.1% year on year; basic income per share was 0.21 yuan; there were no interim profit distribution plans or transfer plans during the reporting period. Increased gross margins+increased revenue were the main drivers of performance growth. Since the second half of last year, pork prices have continued to rise due to supply shortages, and the profitability of the entire pig breeding industry has increased markedly. During the reporting period, the prices of the company's main products, piglets, breeding pigs, and fattening pigs, rose by 76.92%, -6.28% and 26.03% respectively, and sales increased by 30.5%, 40.45% and -24.63% respectively (the decrease in breeding pig sales was mainly due to increased demand for breeding pigs in the 300,000 pig scale ecological farming community project), feed prices fell -0.22%, and sales increased 19.26%. The company's comprehensive gross margin increased by 5.9 percentage points to 15.7%. Coupled with revenue growth, two major factors contributed to an increase of 85.48% in operating profit. The company went public at the end of 2010, and the fund-raising projects were a 300,000 head ecological pig farming community construction project and a 400,000 pig slaughter project. We estimate that the company sold about 150,000 commercial pigs (including piglets and fattening pigs) in 2010, and that the completion of the Ecological Pig Farming Community Project will lead to a 200% increase in production. The 400,000 pig slaughter project produced an average of 28,000 tons of chilled meat and split meat per year after delivery, 50% supplied to Huaihua City (accounting for 20.23% of the market share), and 50% supplied the 300,000 pigs for the ecological pig farming community project in Changsha City (accounting for 9.21% of the market share). Some of them were used as raw materials for the next slaughter project. We expect the two projects to contribute 80 million and 145 million in revenue in 2011, respectively. The company invested heavily in the first half of the year. They acquired Huaihua Xinkang Animal Husbandry, Li County Ping'an Pig Breeding Farm, and Shimen County Shengwangda Pig Breeding Farm, respectively, and purchased the Yameolong Pig Farming Community. The company's recent actions have all revolved around two fund-raising projects to ensure that the ecological pig farming community project can produce 10,000 breeding pigs and 100,000 commercial pigs in 2012. The company's product sales structure will change in the future. In line with the full release of production capacity in fund-raising projects, the growth in pig sales will slow down, and the number of fattened pigs and meat product output will continue to grow. Benefiting from the expansion of its own farming scale and the increase in the concentration of the pig breeding industry, it is expected that the feed business will also maintain a high growth rate of 36% and 40% in 2012, respectively. We gave the company 0.44 yuan EPS in 2011 and 0.55 yuan EPS in 2012, with price-earnings ratios of 35 times and 28 times respectively. We give the investment a “Prudent Recommendation” rating.

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