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【华泰证券】汉缆股份季报点评:业绩下滑幅度收窄

華泰證券 ·  Oct 24, 2012 00:00  · Researches

The decline in performance has narrowed. Revenue during the reporting period fell 8.45% year on year to 2,389 billion yuan, and net profit attributable to listed companies fell 31.98% year on year to 177 million yuan, achieving EPS of 0.25 yuan. The company predicts that net profit for the year will be -15% to 10% year-on-year, and the decline in performance is expected to continue to narrow. The decline in main business shipments is the main reason for the decline in profits. Excluding the impact of raw material cost factors, according to estimates, the gross profit from the main business decreased by 26.2% over the same period last year. The main reasons are: 1) the growth rate of investment in non-industrial infrastructure in power grids has slowed, and cable market capacity is under pressure; 2) some orders were affected by factors such as delays in customer investment plans and failed to be delivered on time; 3) power grid companies' bidding methods have changed, and the supply prices of some products have declined under pressure. In addition, expenses for the period increased by 12.4% year on year, which also had a certain impact on net profit. Fluctuations in copper prices have had a big impact on recent results. In order to hedge against the impact of raw material price fluctuations on production costs, the company has hedged copper and aluminum raw materials in recent years. During the reporting period, the company's fair value income and net investment income totaled 31.354 million yuan, accounting for 15.1% of total profit, which had a significant impact. Among them, about 95.2% of the above revenue came from a single quarter contribution in the third quarter, accounting for 29.3% of the total profit for the quarter. Large orders lay the foundation for future performance improvements. Over the past six months, the company has successively disclosed that the two major power grid companies in the country have not been notified of major winning contracts. The total amount is 858.5 million yuan, which will strongly support the release of future results. It is intended to enter the field of engineering design to enhance market competitiveness. The company recently announced that it plans to have a wholly-owned subsidiary engaged in engineering design, build a more perfect customer service system, and give full play to the advantages of the company's entire business chain without synergy. Moderate increase in the profit forecast for this year: Taking into account the combined net fair value income and investment income for the first three quarters, the future impact of the copper price wave on this data is estimated to be 0.35 yuan and 0.36 yuan, respectively, under current share capital, the company will achieve EPS of 0.35 yuan and 0.36 yuan in 12 and 13, respectively, corresponding to 25.9 times and 25.2 times P/E, respectively. Maintain a “neutral” rating. We actively pay attention to the company's operational efforts and expectations for future performance improvements. Risk warning: 1) Factors such as market sentiment, fluctuating raw material prices, industry competition, and futures liquidation operations affect the company's actual performance; 2) New business expansion lowers expectations.

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