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【上海证券】中超电缆:顺应节能减排大势,进军环保电缆领域

上海證券 ·  Aug 24, 2010 00:00  · Researches

The company's product pricing method is mainly based on copper price quotes and trends and consumption quotas, and measures the raw material cost of the product with reference to the parameters (type, specification, length, cross-section, number of cores, special requirements, etc.) of the ordered product. On this basis, it comprehensively considers order competition, processing costs, and delivery requirements, determines a certain cost addition rate, and makes an external quotation. Assuming that the price of copper will not change from 2010 to 2013, the gross margin of each product segment will basically remain the same. Since the technical barriers of 500kV and below environmentally friendly flame-retardant ultra-high voltage cross-linked cables and 500kV resource-saving aluminum alloy overhead lines are high, the gross margin will be high. According to our comprehensive prediction, we gave the 500kV and below environmentally friendly flame-retardant ultra-high voltage crosslinked cables a gross profit margin of 24.73% (of which 550KV has a gross margin of 28%, 220KV gross margin is 25%, and 110KV gross margin is 22%), and a 20% gross margin of 500kV resource-saving aluminum alloy overhead line. Assuming that 2010-2011 is the construction period for the fundraising project, the 2012-2013 fund-raising projects reached 70% and 100% of the design production capacity, respectively. We expect the company's profit to grow steadily over the next few years. We expect net profit attributable to the parent company from 2010 to 2013 to be 71,7377 million yuan, 83.7924 million yuan, 149.8021 million yuan, and 179.0472 million yuan, respectively, an annual increase of 41.61%, 16.80%, 78.78%, and 19.52%. The corresponding diluted earnings per share are 0.45 yuan, 0.52 yuan, 0.94 yuan and 1.12 yuan, respectively. The valuation benchmark is a reasonable valuation of 11.25 yuan to 13.50 yuan based on the published 2009 results and the average of the predicted results for 2010 and 2011. The average price-earnings ratio of listed domestic companies in the same industry in 2009 was 40.79 times, and the average dynamic price-earnings ratio in 2010 was 29.22 times. The average price-earnings ratio of international listed companies in the same industry in 2009 was 19.62 times, and the average dynamic price-earnings ratio in 2010 was 15.90 times. Looking at recently listed small and medium market stocks, the average price-earnings ratio in 2009 was 74.67 times, and the average dynamic price-earnings ratio in 2010 was 57.62 times, an average increase of 41.80% compared with the issue price. We believe that the power cable industry is a completely competitive industry with slow demand growth and is greatly affected by commodity prices. Considering that the company's fund-raising projects are mainly 500kV environmentally friendly flame-retardant ultra-high voltage cross-linked cables with high added value and 500kV resource-saving aluminum alloy overhead wire projects, the project clearly had a driving effect on the company's performance after delivery, so we gave the company a certain valuation premium. Referring to the valuation situation of similar companies, we gave the company a price-earnings ratio of 25-30 times in 2010. The company's reasonable valuation range was 11.25 yuan to 13.50 yuan. The pricing conclusion price range is 9.00 to 10.80 yuan. Judging from the operation of the 15 recently listed small and medium market stocks, the average premium rate as of August 23 was 71.81%, that is, the issue price is equivalent to the average discount rate of 41.80% of the latest market price. Taking into account the fundamentals of the company, the valuation of listed companies in the same industry, and the recent valuation of newly listed stocks, we gave the company a 20% discount. The recommended inquiry range was 9.00 yuan to 10.80 yuan. The corresponding dynamic price-earnings ratio range for 2010 was 20.00 to 24.00 times, and the static price-earnings ratio range for 2009 was 28.13-33.75 times.

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