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【申银万国】佳隆股份:鸡精鸡粉行业国内龙头

申萬宏源 ·  Oct 15, 2010 00:00  · Researches

Chicken essence and chicken powder are the main sources of the company's operating income and profit. In '07, '08, '09, and the first half of '10, the total revenue of two products, chicken essence and chicken powder, accounted for 83.1%, 79.2%, 80.7%, and 76.5%, respectively. China's chicken essence and chicken powder industry has broad scope for development. The average annual compound growth rate of China's condiment industry in 00-09 was 16.3%. In 2008, the per capita annual consumption of chicken essence and chicken powder in some economically developed regions of China was only 2.7 kg, lower than 50% of developed countries and regions; the consumption of chicken essence and chicken powder products accounted for less than 12% of the total amount of umami condiments, far lower than 80% of European and American countries. Currently, the market demand for chicken essence and chicken powder in China mainly comes from the catering industry (accounting for 69%). In the future, China's chicken essence and chicken powder industry will gradually spread from catering to households and the food manufacturing industry. The company is the first national brand in the chicken essence and chicken powder industry. In 2008, the total sales volume of the company's chicken powder and chicken essence ranked among the top three in the industry, with a market share of 7%, making it the first national brand in the industry. Among them, the company's dominant product, chicken powder, is second only to Unilever's Knorr chicken powder, ranking second in the country, with a market share of 19%. Full industry chain processing+mid-range market positioning+flat channel distribution have shaped the company's three core competencies. The company uses a vertically integrated production model to effectively reduce costs. Enter the mid-range catering market with the quality of high-end products. In terms of marketing, the company adopted a strategy of declining marketing channels, turning secondary and tertiary distributors into direct customers, and at the same time carrying out active distribution through a joint marketing model. The company first built Henan as a sample market and further promoted it throughout the country. The capital raised is mainly used to expand the production capacity of chicken essence and chicken powder. The capacity utilization rate of the company's main products has been close to or exceeded 100% in recent years, hindering the company's further development. The investment plan raised 240 million yuan in capital, of which nearly 180 million dollars will be invested in the construction of production bases for chicken essence and chicken powder. The production capacity of chicken essence and chicken powder will increase from the current 12,000 tons to 32,000 tons. It is estimated that the company's fully diluted EPS in 10-12 years will be 0.673 yuan, 0.832 yuan, and 1.132 yuan, up 22.6%, 24.1%, and 36.0% respectively. Referring to the price-earnings ratio of comparable companies and the initial price-earnings ratio of the recently listed SME board, the recommended inquiry range is 27-34 yuan, corresponding to 40-50 times 10PE. Risk disclosure. Prices of raw materials have fluctuated greatly; the development of the household consumer market has fallen short of expectations.

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