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【爱建证券】恒基达鑫:重资产模式下租客减少,未来区位调整与产业链延伸是看点

愛建證券 ·  Mar 24, 2014 00:00  · Researches

The key investment company is a third-party petrochemical logistics service provider. Its business covers the Pearl River Delta region and Yangtze River Delta region, where the domestic petrochemical industry is most developed. It is currently one of the largest petrochemical product terminals in the coastal region of South China and one of the petrochemical product storage bases with the best storage facilities and the largest scale capacity. Oil and petrochemical trade is a major factor affecting petrochemical logistics. Currently, the main warehousing products of domestic petrochemical logistics enterprises come from imports, and continuous demand for oil and chemical products imports and exports is an important source to guarantee the storage of petrochemical logistics enterprises. In terms of demand, China's apparent consumption of crude oil and oil products reached 491 million tons in 2012, maintaining steady growth while showing an upward trend in imports. In 2012, the dependence on oil imports reached more than 60%. It is expected that in the future, the growth rate of China's oil imports will be faster than the apparent growth rate of consumption, and the dependence on imports will increase to more than 65%. At the same time, in terms of refined oil products, although the dependence on imports is small, consumption has maintained an upward trend. China's apparent consumption of refined oil products reached 286 million tons in 2013. It is expected that in the future, the growth rate of refined oil exports will be stronger than its imports, and the import dependency will remain around 3%. In terms of petrochemicals, although the increase in domestic demand has declined in recent years due to the economic downturn, judging from the share of consumption and imports of various major products, overall, it has maintained cumulative growth. It is expected that China's dependence on imports of major chemical products will still be high in the future. The number of tenants aged 13 years has declined under the asset-heavy model. The company's main assets are chemical storage tanks, terminal shorelines and other related resources, which have obvious asset-heavy properties. At the same time, most of the company's tenants are over 1 year old. Although it is not easily affected by the general environment in the short term, the overall long-term tenants declined as the industry continues to slump and the supply of new storage tanks increases, which in turn affected the 13-year performance. It is worth paying attention to the gradual reduction of the company's dependence on the Zhuhai base in the future as the company's operating location is adjusted. The participation in Hengtou Holdings and the acquisition of Jin Tengxing will help optimize the future business structure. Since January of this year, the company has successively announced two foreign investment projects, namely the proposed capital increase of Hengtou Holdings and the proposed acquisition of 70% of Jin Tengxing's shares. We believe that the company will join Shandong Oil and Gas Investment Company through a capital increase in its subsidiary Hengtou Holdings to enter the booming natural gas industry chain and is expected to share the high growth dividends of China's natural gas industry in the future. The acquisition of Jin Tengxing means that the company has begun to expand its market and business outlets in the central China regional center and the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, and related performance promises will also help the company increase its future ROE. We expect the company's net profit for 2014-16 to be 55 million yuan, 67 million yuan, and 75 million yuan, and EPS 0.462 yuan, 0.553 yuan, and 0.628 yuan. Currently, the corresponding PE price is 41.23, 34.45, and 30.33 times, respectively. From the analysis of market capacity and the company's market value, there is some premium space based on the industry's 14-year dynamic profit margin, giving the company a “recommended” investment rating. Risk warning: Demand for downstream petrochemical products continues to be sluggish; occupancy rates decline due to loss of major customers; and increased competition among industry companies.

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