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【华泰联合证券】汉缆股份:领跑超高压电缆市场,未来业绩向好

華泰聯合證券 ·  Oct 31, 2011 00:00  · Researches

Earnings per share were 0.37 yuan during the reporting period, revenue grew smoothly, and gross margin rebounded in a single quarter. The company achieved operating income of 2.61 billion yuan in the first three quarters, an increase of 20.68% over the previous year; net profit of 260 million yuan, achieving earnings per share of 0.37 yuan. Among them, the third quarter achieved revenue of 941 million yuan in a single quarter, an increase of 29.1% over the previous year. The composite gross profit margin for the first three quarters was 19.9%, down about 3.6 percentage points year on year, which to a certain extent dragged down the net profit decline of 14.06% year on year. However, the gross margin for a single quarter in the third quarter has rebounded from 16.6% in the first half of the year to 25.9%, slightly higher than 0.3 percentage points in the same period last year. Revenue for the fourth quarter is expected to be confirmed steadily, gross margin remains stable, and steady growth in full-year results can be expected. The main business positioning is clear, and the leading position in the industry has been consolidated. According to research, the company focuses on the power and special cable business, and is expanding cautiously. The power cable business, which contributes about 80% of the company's revenue, has mature technology and market advantages. According to statistics, since this year, the company has won the bid rate of 23.7% and 25.3% in the centralized procurement of 110 (66) kV and 220 kV cables, respectively, ranking first. In the third quarter, the company achieved breakthroughs in product development. 220kV cross-linked polyethylene insulated power cable accessories and torsion-resistant flexible cables for wind power generation passed the new product certification, and the 220kV cross-linked polyethylene cable system (including cables and accessories) passed pre-certification tests, which will help the company expand its future market in the field of cable accessories and wind power. The cable market is growing steadily, and the company's future performance is improving. 1) Urban power grid transformation efforts will increase during the “12th Five-Year Plan” period, the cable penetration rate is expected to continue to increase, and the size of the power cable market will maintain steady growth; as a leading enterprise, the company is expected to continue to lead the power cable market. 2) According to research and company announcements, preparations for fund-raising projects and targeted asset purchases are progressing smoothly. In the future, the company is expected to rely on a richer product line to improve market competitiveness, reduce dependence on power grid customers, and expand profit sources. 3) The low gross margin factor in the first half of the year will still affect this year's profitability to a certain extent. Profit forecast and investment advice: We expect that the company will achieve earnings of 0.58 yuan and 0.67 yuan per share in 2011 and 2012, respectively, corresponding P/E of 27 times and 23 times, respectively. Give it an “gain” rating. Risk warning: 1) Power grid investment and construction are greatly affected by macroeconomic policies, and there is a risk that some projects will be delayed. 2) Fluctuations in the prices of raw materials such as copper, aluminum, and cross-linked polyethylene will to a certain extent pose a risk of fluctuations in profit margins for the company's products.

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