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【中银国际证券】山东墨龙:调整目标价格

[bank of China International Securities] Shandong Molong: adjust the target price

中銀國際證券 ·  Jun 15, 2011 00:00  · Researches

Main discovery

The company will still face upward pressure on raw materials. Steel accounts for 70% of the company's product cost. Steel prices rose 400-500 yuan per ton in the first quarter compared with the fourth quarter of 2010, up 700 yuan per ton from the same period last year, or more than 10%.

The manufacturing cost of new projects raised for investment will fall and is expected to return to normal in the third quarter. In addition to the rise in raw material prices, the company's gross profit margin fell to 8.7% in the first quarter, mainly due to the higher depreciation cost of 180 high-grade oil pipes and the increased cost of tools and engineering configuration. The manufacturing cost per ton in the first quarter was 400 yuan higher than the normal level. The manufacturing cost of the project was 1100 yuan / ton in January and dropped to 700 yuan / ton in May, while the normal cost was 600 yuan / ton.

There is a high probability that the company's gross profit margin will be stable in the future. The production line of the project is 400000 tons, and oil casing and other special pipes can be produced. The production line is the latest in China and will greatly improve the utilization rate of raw materials. The new production line can process longer tubes and increase the number of pipes processed at the same time. In addition, compared with the previous simultaneous truncation of both ends of the pipe, it only needs to be cut off from the middle of the long pipe.

Valuation

Considering the risk of overall gross profit margin decline faced by the company for the whole year of 2011, we adjusted our forecast for 2011-2012 from 1.11,1.39 yuan to 0.80,1.23 yuan. The target price was lowered from 28.40 yuan to 21.00 yuan. The relative price-to-earnings ratio of 2011-2012 is 26.3 and 17.1 times, respectively.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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