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【湘财证券】佳隆股份:产能瓶颈和营业外收入剧降至2010年业绩表现平平

湘財證券 ·  Feb 23, 2011 00:00  · Researches

Event: The company recently released a performance report. In 2010, it achieved total revenue of 270 million yuan, an increase of 15.51% over the previous year, operating profit of 67.92 million yuan, an increase of 15.47% over the previous year, total profit of 67.77 million yuan, an increase of 1.82% over the previous year, and net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 58.23 million yuan, up 2.01% year on year. Basic earnings per share are 0.71 yuan, and fully diluted earnings per share are 0.56 yuan. Comment: The company's revenue increased by only 15.51% year over year, mainly due to capacity bottlenecks. The company's revenue increased 15.51% year on year. The increase in revenue was mainly due to the increase in the company's sales volume and product price increases. The company's cumulative revenue for the first three quarters increased by 12.75% year on year. According to estimates, the company achieved revenue of 89.41 million yuan in the fourth quarter, an increase of 21.58% over the previous year. We believe that the company's low revenue growth is mainly due to production capacity bottlenecks. According to the company's information disclosure, the capacity utilization rate of the company's chicken powder in the first half of 10 years was as high as 107%, and the capacity utilization rate of chicken essence was as high as 119%. According to the progress plan of the fund-raising project, production is expected to be put into operation as soon as the fourth quarter of 2011, so in terms of sales revenue, the increase will mainly come from price increases. The company's net profit reached 58.23 million yuan, an increase of 2.01% over the previous year, which is basically in line with our expectations of 58.07 million yuan. Performance growth was lower than revenue mainly due to a sharp decline in non-operating income. The growth rate of a company's net profit is basically the same as the growth rate of total profit. At around 2%, this means that there has not been much change in the income tax rate. The company's total profit increased by only 1.82% while operating profit increased 15.47%, mainly because the net non-operating income and expenditure fell sharply from 7.745 million in 2009 to -144,000, highlighted by the reduction in government subsidies corresponding to the company's listing. Future growth can still be expected, but the cost issue should not be underestimated. The company began promoting Henan's experience in flattening the marketing network in 2007 to other parts of the country. In this process, production capacity bottlenecks became more prominent, and sales growth was affected. As the fund-raising project is put into operation as soon as the fourth quarter of next year, the company will build 50-60 offices at that time to support the release of corresponding production capacity. This means that the company's significant future growth will mainly be reflected in 2012. However, in this process, the labor costs of the more than 100 people newly recruited by the company will cause costs to increase to a certain extent, and the company's corresponding upfront market expansion will also bring certain expenses, so it is still difficult to make a big breakthrough in the profit growth rate in 2011. We believe that if the company makes a breakthrough in thinking, it will be able to resolve the growth dilemma in 2011. Otherwise, if cost control is poor, there is a high possibility of a decline in performance. This is also a factor we consider in our IPO pricing report. Profit forecasts and valuations. Maintain the 10-12 EPS forecasts of 0.56, 0.52, and 0.76 yuan. The company's stock price broke, but it was in our recommended range of 25-30 yuan. Maintain the “Overweight” rating.

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