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【KIM ENG】Catcher Technology:Not the best catch,stay at HOLD

KIM ENG ·  Apr 3, 2014 00:00  · Researches

Raise TP to TWD220 to factor in better Sony demand in 1H14 and 12x2014F PE. MAINTAIN HOLD AS THE STREET'S STRONG REVISION CLOSE TO THE PEAK. Management has been toned down the Samsung Metals Order Winners. Perfectly re-rating shampoo as the company will throw all its eggs intoone basket by fully concentrating only on iPhone 6 4.7 inch in2H14/2015f (not necessarily any concentration). What's New. Catcher is due to release its March Sales on 5 Apr. Presented it's probably to beat our previous estimate (due to the desire to the better demand for Sony's Xperia Z1 compact and the new Z2) it will Just meet the low end of consensus forecast of -22% QoQ (guidance of -20% QoQ). Looking ahead, we estimate 2Q14 sales to grow 10% QoQ to TWD11.4b, driven by Sony andHTC, but lower than consensus of TWD11.7b OWING to iPad mini orderdilution and no Samsung metal dilution and no Samsung metal dilution Contribution.What's Our View. For FY14F, we forecast catcher will grab 20% of the iPhone 4.7 inch allocation at best (consensus of 20% at base case). We assume Catchercan raise its margin by 130bps to 33.5% in FY14F, Driven by a RicherProduct mix represents the smartphone business. We raise our FY14 salary forecast by 4%, but we expect limited shareprice upside down from here as we believe the consensus revision of consensus will take a pause (figure 2) given the Beginning weaker 1H14Foutlook and no relaxation side surprise on 2H14F performance vs. consensus. Our new target price of TWD220 (from TWD190) is based on on2014f EPS and 12x PER (from 11x to reflect the better motivation growth) .Key expectations are end demand and competition from Hon Hai Group AndCaseTek.

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