Capacity bottleneck restricts development and will be solved in 2012
The company's revenue grew at a compound rate of 56.6% in the three years from 2007 to 2009, while operating revenue grew by only 15.51% in 2010, mainly due to capacity bottlenecks. In 2009, the company's capacity utilization rate of chicken powder and chicken essence was 110.07% and 119.24% respectively. Previously, the market was more optimistic about Jialong's further improvement in capacity utilization, which now seems to be nearing its limit. As the company's customers are mainly catering channels and are less sensitive to prices, 11 years of performance growth will mainly rely on price increases. The 20,000-ton production capacity of the fund-raising project will be put into production in 12 years as planned. at present, the company is planning the second phase of the 40,000-ton production expansion project, and the capacity bottleneck will be solved in 12 years, which will mainly test the company's marketing ability in the future.
Non-operating income will be greatly reduced, and subsidy income will be reduced in the future.
The company's net profit increased by only 1.82% when operating profit increased by 15.47%, mainly due to a sharp reduction in government subsidies. In 2008 and 2009, the government subsidies included in the current profits and losses of the company were 7.7748 million yuan and 7.745 million yuan respectively, accounting for 18.7% and 13.6% of the company's net profit. In 2010, the revenue plummeted to 2.24 million yuan, a decrease of 71.08%. It can be seen that after the successful listing of supporting enterprises, the financial support of local governments has been greatly weakened.
Benefit from the high growth of catering, which is expected to exceed the average growth rate of the industry.
The catering channel has the largest demand for chicken essence and chicken powder, accounting for 79% of the total, and the company is different from the family-based sales model of the first two wives in the industry, Le and Jia Le, in which the catering channel accounts for 86% of the company's sales, which not only avoids the competition, but also directly benefits from the high growth of the catering industry. The catering industry has a compound growth rate of 26.8% since 2001, and the substitution of chicken essence and chicken powder for traditional flavor agents is emerging. As the first domestic chicken essence and chicken powder brand, the company is expected to exceed the growth rate of the industry in the future.
Popularize the "Henan Model" and have a good Marketing Prospect
The company began to implement the marketing flattening operation in 2007 with Henan Province as a pilot, implemented the channel sinking strategy, upgraded the original secondary and tertiary distributors to direct customers, and achieved good results. Henan Province's income grew by 84% in the three years from 2006 to 2009. At present, the company has promoted the Henan model to the whole country, but subject to capacity constraints, there is no effect on performance. However, we believe that the effect of this preliminary basic work will be reflected after the new capacity is launched, which also makes us confident about the sales situation in the process of capacity release in the future. Therefore, with the gradual release of the company's production capacity, the performance will break out in 2012.
Profit forecast
It is estimated that the sales volume of the company's chicken essence and chicken powder products will increase by about 15%, 36% and 40% in the future, the gross profit margin will remain stable, the proportion of sales and management expenses to revenue will remain stable at about 10%, and the financial expenses will be reduced. according to this calculation, the company's EPS from 2011 to 2013 will be 0.82,1.05,1.39 yuan respectively, corresponding to 34 times, 27 times and 20 times of earnings. We should pay close attention to the possibility that the company's future sales will exceed expectations and do not rate them for the time being.
