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【招商证券】青龙管业:三季报点评及电话会议纪要

招商證券 ·  Oct 29, 2013 00:00  · Researches

The company released its three-quarter report on the 28th, and we invited the company's management to hold a conference call on the 29th. The company's south-to-north water transfer order confirmation is still slow, and the cost rate is on the rise, maintaining the “Prudent Recommendation - A” investment rating. The company's net profit for the first three quarters increased 4% year on year, achieving EPS of 0.23 yuan. The company achieved revenue, operating profit, and net profit of 350 million yuan, 89 million yuan, and 39.06 million yuan respectively in the first three quarters of this year, up 46.4%, 11.5%, and 4.0% year on year. Net profit after deduction for the first three quarters increased 23.4% year on year, and achieved a total EPS of 0.23 yuan. Looking at a single quarter, the company's revenue and net profit increased 78% and 31% year on year in the third quarter, achieving EPS of 0.12 yuan. The third quarter results were basically the same as in the second quarter. The process of confirming orders for south-to-north water transfer in the third quarter was still slow, and sales expenses increased significantly. The company has obtained a total of 930 million yuan of contracts for south-to-north water transfer projects in Henan, Hebei, and Tianjin. We expect to confirm a total revenue of about 260 million yuan by the end of September, accounting for 28%. Of these, Tianjin South-to-North Water Transfer (contract amount of 90 million yuan) has not yet begun. Due to the long construction period or confirmation of only a small amount of revenue (contract amount of 210 million yuan), Henan South-to-North Water Transfer is expected to confirm revenue of about 110 million yuan and 130 million yuan (contract amount of 630 million yuan) for the second and third quarters, respectively. In the third quarter, the company's gross margin reached 40%, and the sales expenses ratio was 18%, all of which increased sharply, mainly due to the high gross margin of the northwest China project and the high freight costs of the south-to-north water transfer project in Henan. At the end of the third quarter, the company had orders of about 1.1 billion yuan. The fourth quarter results mainly focused on the confirmation of orders for south-to-north water transfer in Henan. At the end of the second quarter, the amount of the company's unconfirmed revenue was about 1.21 billion yuan. We expect the amount of new orders signed by the company in the third quarter will be around 150 million yuan, the company's concrete pipeline revenue in the third quarter will be about 250 million yuan (estimated at 70% of revenue), and the company's on-hand orders at the end of the third quarter will be about 1.1 billion yuan. According to the contract agreement, all orders for the south-to-north water transfer in Henan should be completed before the end of this year. Currently, the company's remaining order amount in Henan is still around 400 million yuan, and the revenue confirmation process will significantly affect the company's performance in the fourth quarter. The company has thematic investment opportunities and maintains a “Prudential Recommendation - A” investment rating. The company currently has an on-hand order amount accounting for 142% of last year's revenue, and the base for the fourth quarter of last year was low, making it easy to grow. If the south-to-north water diversion revenue recognition process exceeds expectations or the construction of municipal pipelines is further strengthened, the company has thematic investment opportunities. The company's EPS is expected to be 0.28, 0.33, and 0.37 yuan in 2013-2015. The current stock price corresponds to 28 times PE in 2013, maintaining a “Prudent Recommendation - A” investment rating. Risk Warning: Revenue recognition falls short of expectations, and expense rates continue to be high.

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