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【国泰君安证券】汉森制药:营销改革夯实长期发展基础

國泰君安 ·  Apr 17, 2015 00:00  · Researches

Key investment points: Sales reform consolidates the foundation, continues to advance healthy transformation, and maintains the rating of increasing holdings. Net profit increased by 6.1% in 2014 due to sales reforms, down from the compound growth rate of 20% in the past 3 years, but sales of leading varieties have been adjusted, and Yunnan Yongzitang varieties have also been consolidated. Growth is expected to resume in 2015, maintaining the profit forecast of 0.52/0.68 yuan for 2015-16 and 0.88 yuan in 2017. Considering major health expansion, the target price was raised to 32 yuan. Sales transformation consolidates the foundation for long-term development. Revenue in 2014 was 737 million yuan (+26%), and net profit attributable to the parent company was 118 million yuan (+6.1%, no increase of 6.23%), in line with expectations. During the year, Yunnan Yongzitang (80%) acquired an additional amount of about 12 million yuan. In fact, after deducting this impact, the company's main business profit remained basically the same. Compared to the past 3 years, the main reasons for the decline in net profit growth rate are: 1) sales model adjustments, sales growth of leading products declined; 2) the fund-raising production line was put into operation in January, and depreciation and amortization increased; 3) Yunnan Yongzitang is still in the consolidation and adjustment period, and sales have not yet increased. Looking at the medium to long term, there is still room for growth; sales adjustments for Ginkgo biloba capsules and Shukquan capsules have been completed, and are expected to resume growth with the procurement and sales volume of basic drugs; the second-tier variety Tianma Xingnao capsules are used by a large number of patients. Currently, there is only 16 provinces with medical insurance, and after seeking to be included in national medical insurance, they have a potential of over 500 million; with the completion of the integration of Yongzitang in Yunnan, many exclusive and patented varieties are expected to gradually gain strength. The Big Health Strategy is progressing steadily. The company is actively expanding the health industry chain and expanding upstream and downstream. Currently, the Chinese herbal medicine cultivation and demonstration base has entered the land transfer process. Relying on government resources and the advantages of listed companies' platforms, endogenous+epitaxial extension is expected to advance steadily. Risk warning: Depreciation of the GMP transformation of the old workshop continues to increase; construction of the planting site started slower than expected.

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