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【宏源证券】毅昌股份:毅昌是一条好鲶鱼

宏源證券 ·  Jan 12, 2011 00:00  · Researches

The growth of the color TV business was limited, and the white light and automobile businesses grew rapidly. Development idea: The color TV field focuses on developing major customers. Demand for color TV slowed in 2010, and in 2011, Yichang will focus on strategic major customers and not pursue the number of customers. Yichang will promote the successful experience of color TV structural components to the automotive and white light fields. The white power business will increase the proportion of design, and automobiles will increase the manufacturing process, all adopting the customer cooperation order of “domestic brands first, then joint venture brands”. We expect Baidian's revenue to reach 300 million yuan in 2010; automobiles account for 4-5% of revenue in 2010, nearly 10% in 2011, and 15% within 3 years. Yichang caused the catfish effect. Yichang has a competitive relationship with OEM customers. The reason why Yichang was able to get orders from machine manufacturers: (1) The refined division of labor and collaboration is conducive to improving quality and efficiency. (2) Machine manufacturers have introduced external competition to improve their design ability and response speed, causing a catfish effect. The DMS model focuses more on new opportunities. Yichang is guided by industrial design, concentrates more energy on new product and process (blue ocean) development opportunities, and avoids the Red Sea competition of OEM for existing products. Give it an “Overweight” rating. The company's operating income growth rates from 2010 to 2012 were 28%, 22%, and 20%, respectively; net profit attributable to parent company shareholders increased by 28%, 31%, and 22%, respectively; and EPS was 0.39, 0.51, and 0.62, respectively. PE was 25 times in 2011, and the compound growth rate for the next 3 years is about 26.8%. Currently, the company's valuation is reasonable, so it is recommended to pay long-term attention to waiting for investment opportunities. Risk warning: (1) downstream demand is slowing; (2) diversification is slower than expected; (3) there are more accounts receivable.

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