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【国泰君安证券】汉森制药2015年1季度报点评:折旧增加影响短期业绩,期待新领域突破

國泰君安 ·  Apr 27, 2015 00:00  · Researches

Key investment points: Short-term performance is under pressure, active expansion of the health industry, and maintenance of an increase in holdings rating. Depreciation on fund-raising projects is increasing, and the company's short-term performance is under some pressure, but sales consolidation and base drug procurement increases will be reflected one after another, maintaining the profit forecast of EPS of 0.52/0.68/0.88 yuan from 2015 to 2017. Continue to be optimistic about the market space of the rehabilitation medical industry and the company's resource advantages, maintain an increase in holdings rating, and target price of 32 yuan. Depreciation increased to pressure on short-term performance. In 2015, Q1 revenue was 171 million yuan, down 1.86% year on year, and net profit attributable to parent company was 28.62 million yuan, down 10.99% year on year, and EPS 0.10, lower than expected. The pressure on short-term performance was mainly due to increased depreciation from the commissioning of fund-raising projects, an increase in management expenses of 2.39 million yuan, while interest was reduced, and financial expenses also increased slightly. The old workshop will undergo a new GMP transformation in 2015, and the pressure on performance in the first half of the year is still high. Sales integration and growth in basic drug procurement are difficult to reflect in the first half of the year, but the medium to growth period is still worth looking forward to: ① The sales ratio between hospitals and OTC channels is 3:7, and the provincial procurement of supplementary basic drugs drives the hospital market expansion; ② Sales adjustments between ginkgo biloba capsules and shukquan capsules have been completed, which is expected to resume growth with base drug procurement and sales volume; ③ The number of patients using second-tier varieties of Tianmaxingniao capsules is vast. Currently, only 16 provinces have the potential to be covered by health insurance in 16 provinces, which seek to exceed 500 million. ④ The integration of Yongzitang in Yunnan has been completed. Many exclusive and patent-protected varieties are expected to gradually gain strength 。 The Big Health Strategy is progressing steadily. The company is actively expanding the big health industry chain and expanding upstream and downstream. Currently, the Chinese herbal medicine cultivation and demonstration base has entered the land circulation process. Relying on government resources and the platform advantages of listed companies, it is expected that it will take the lead in the old-age care and rehabilitation industry, and endogenesis and extension will advance step by step. Risk warning: Depreciation of GMP modifications in old plants continues to increase; construction of planting sites has started slower than expected.

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