Postpone the cycle-the launch of China's new shipping policy and the launch of BABA IPO roadshow.
Recently, the State Council issued some opinions on promoting the healthy Development of the Shipping Industry, which is the first time that China has issued a maritime development strategy at the national level. The "several opinions" specifically arranged and deployed seven key tasks, including: vigorously developing the modern shipping service industry, improving the global shipping network, speeding up the development and innovation of shipping finance (insurance), and actively developing mixed ownership shipping enterprises.
On the other hand, according to the Wall Street Journal, BABA will be listed on the New York Stock Exchange on Sept. 19 under the ticker symbol "BABA". The IPO will be priced between $60 and $66 and will raise $24.3 billion, or the IPO roadshow will be officially launched on Sept. 8.
Comments: the introduction of the new shipping policy shows that in the coming period of time, the development of China's shipping service industry will become the top priority, the expansion of the global shipping network, the supporting value-added services of the shipping service industry and the reform of mixed ownership will be carried out step by step. And the development direction required by these policies is basically consistent with the construction idea of the Haitong platform, we believe that the promotion of the new shipping policy will be more conducive to the smooth development of the platform operation; at the same time, BABA officially launched IPO in the United States, which also shows the recognition of the opportunity for the development of overseas trade from the industrial level. With the development of a large cycle, the operation effect of the Haitong platform is more guaranteed.
Torrent Yongjin-the outline of a Haitong platform surfaced.
We have studied the actual operation effect of the Haitong platform (as it is still in the state of trial operation, we are unable to carry out the follow-up operation of booking). The main content of Haitong platform is mainly route selection and booking operation, in which the route selection is more significant in the column of "special route", but there is no specific actual information at present. Secondly, in addition to booking operation, the value-added services provided by Haitong platform are: customs declaration and inspection, trailer transport, warehousing services, freight support, cargo tracking and so on. In addition, Haitong platform provides a total of 11 shipping regional routes, 167routes and 85 ports of destination, and the route quotation basically belongs to the lower price level of parallel routes (compared with BABA's original quotation of the same route).
Comments: from the actual situation of the interface of the platform, the operation interface is relatively friendly. Except for the special route information and booking operation flow that are not provided in the trial operation, the mode of operation is basically in line with expectations, and according to our judgment, under the determination of the official listing date of BABA on the 19th, the official launch time of a Haitong platform will be before that (the launch of the platform will also help to raise the valuation of BABA's listing).
Investment advice.
We continue to be optimistic about the construction and operation of the Haitong platform and the future development prospects of the company, and suggest that the company, as the subject matter of BABA's concept, has investment opportunities in the short term. According to our assumption, the company's EPS from 2014 to 2016 is expected to be 0.18,0.22,0.29 yuan respectively, and it is estimated that the company's future total market capitalization will reach 6.25 billion yuan, corresponding to the stock price of 20.63 yuan, maintaining the "recommended" rating.
Risk hint.
Haitong operation is lower than expected risk, enterprise reform and transformation risk, performance growth does not meet the expected risk and so on.
