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【财富证券】鲁丰股份:受益消费升级,产能瓶颈突破将释放业绩

財富證券 ·  Apr 6, 2011 00:00  · Researches

Industry leader in household aluminum foil and pharmaceutical aluminum foil segments. The company's main products are household aluminum foil and medicinal aluminum foil. Household aluminum foil ranks second in the domestic market share, and is mainly sold to developed overseas countries; medicinal aluminum foil ranks first in the domestic market share, reaching about 70%. Due to the proximity of the company's products to the consumer market, gross profit remains stable and highly resistant to cyclicality. Break through production capacity bottlenecks and drive rapid release of performance. As the company's self-financing and IPO projects are gradually put into operation, we predict that the company's aluminum foil production from 2010 to 2012 will be 50,000 tons, 85,000 tons, and 120,000 tons, respectively, and the aluminum strip production will be 50,000 tons, 90,000 tons, and 100,000 tons, respectively. The company is a deep processing enterprise, and the main factor in improving performance is the expansion of production capacity and production volume. We believe that the company's aluminum foil production increased by 70% in 2011, which will definitely be reflected in performance. The downstream market for household and medicinal aluminum foil is in high demand. As a packaging material, aluminum foil has unique advantages. Food and beverage packaging is one of the largest applications of household aluminum foil. As the income of Chinese residents continues to rise, consumption upgrades continue to advance, and environmental awareness continues to increase, the consumption of liquid food such as aluminum foil partially replaces plastic wrap, lunch boxes, and dairy products. The application of aluminum foil in the food packaging industry will become more and more widespread. It is expected that the compound growth rate of household aluminum foil demand will reach more than 30% in the next ten years. On the other hand, with the improvement of China's medical system and the continuous increase in drug quality requirements, the proportion of aluminum foil blister packaging in pharmaceutical packaging materials will increase, and it is expected that the compound growth rate of pharmaceutical aluminum foil demand will reach more than 20% in the next ten years. Profit forecast. According to our forecast, the company's revenue from 2010 to 2012 was 1016.95 million yuan, 2093.72 million yuan, and 313.7.65 million yuan, with net profit of 41.9 million yuan, 862613 million yuan and 129.271 million yuan, corresponding EPS of 0.54 yuan, 1.11 yuan, and 1.67 yuan, and price-earnings ratios of 67.9X, 33.4X, and 21.9X. Risk warning. 1. Whether the project can be put into operation as scheduled; 2. Production capacity is expanding rapidly, and can company management and market development be followed up.

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