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【湘财证券】力生制药:稳健经营的品牌普药企业,营销是抓手,房地产是亮点

湘財證券 ·  Jul 19, 2010 00:00  · Researches

The company mainly produces generic drugs, and its main products are Subisan brand indapamide tablets and the antifungal drug itraconazole. Indapamide tablets are suitable for moderate to mild hypertension, are inexpensive, and are mainly sold in tertiary terminals (community hospitals and rural health hospitals). In the future, it will form an indapamide series of products, which are composed of single formulations (subisan), sustained-release tablets, and compound indapamide tablets. Compound indapamide tablets have now entered phase II clinical trials, and extended-release tablets are still under development. These products will meet the needs of different groups of patients. The Alzheimer's drug, Haishi, is the company's second-tier potential variety, and is mainly promoted and sold in major hospitals. As the degree of aging deepens and health awareness increases in the future, market capacity will gradually expand. The company's sales expenses increased by more than 80% in the first quarter, mainly due to promotion expenses for biochemical pharmaceuticals. The company is developing new sales regions. Originally, only one sales office was set up in the two regions of Guangdong and Guangxi, but now they have been set up separately. In addition, sales staff have been increased to around 200 this year, and sales expenses have been increased accordingly. The COVID-19 API project is under construction. It is expected that the construction of the project will be completed in 2011, but it will not bring profit to the company in the short term. The biochemical pharmaceutical low molecular weight heparin sodium is expected to be approved in the second half of this year. Low molecular weight heparin sodium has a better thrombolytic effect and fewer bleeding side effects. The majority shareholder, Tianjin Pharmaceutical Group, uses the company as the only integrated platform for chemical drugs, while Sino-Singapore Pharmaceutical is the group's platform for proprietary Chinese medicines. In the future, it is expected that the resources of chemical pharmaceutical companies such as Central Pharmaceutical under the Group will gradually be integrated into the company, expanding the overall scale of the company. Sales of the Olympic Village villa project have basically been completed, and only a few units remain unsold. The real estate project will be settled this year and next two years, and may be included in operating income in the second quarter of this year. At the end of last year, there were prepayments for real estate projects of about 130 million yuan, and we estimate that this year and next two years, real estate revenue will be about 180 million yuan. Since there are no subsequent land reserves, the company will withdraw from the real estate business. Takeda Pharmaceutical lost a large loss of more than 60 million yuan last year. This is because the former Japanese general manager did not understand the domestic drug sales situation, so the goods were shipped, but the purchase price could not be recovered. Currently, the company has changed managers, and the original sales problems cannot be eradicated immediately. It is possible that there will still be losses this year, but the loss margin will be drastically reduced. Shin-Uchida Pharmaceutical mainly processes Chinese herbal medicines and re-exports them to Japan. Japan's economic situation is not ideal, and profit expectations should not be too high. The main business scope of the newly established Tianjin Laodun Pharmaceutical is the extraction of Chinese herbal medicines, and the products are then sold back to China. Investment advice: We predict that Lisheng Pharmaceutical's EPS for 2010, 2011, and 2012 will be 0.97 yuan, 1.31 yuan, and 1.57 yuan, respectively. Lisheng Pharmaceutical is a company that produces general medicines such as cardiovascular and antifungal drugs. The market volume growth rate of the leading product, indapamide tablets, is stable. Earnings from real estate projects will be reflected this year and next two years, boosting the company's short-term performance. Future development opportunities lie in the integration of chemical drug resources within the Group and the formal commencement of production of COVID-19 pharmaceuticals in fund-raising projects. For the first time, we gave Lisheng Pharmaceutical an “increase in holdings” rating. The company's reasonable value range is 39.30-45.85 yuan. Risk factors: The completion time of the fund-raising project was later than expected; the participating companies continued to operate poorly

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