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【英大证券】鲁丰股份:高速扩张的铝箔龙头

英大證券 ·  Dec 31, 2010 00:00  · Researches

The release of the company's production capacity in the next 2 years will establish high growth. Since the company's gross margin level is less affected by fluctuations in aluminum prices, the release of the company's production capacity in the future and the increase in downstream demand are the main sources of the company's performance growth. Currently, the company's aluminum foil production capacity is 40,000 tons. Other projects under construction include: an IPO fund-raising project — 30,000 tons of aluminum foil, which is expected to be completed and put into operation in March 2011; the company's self-funded construction project — the 50,000 ton aluminum foil production line in Qingdao, which has now been put into operation. In addition, Runfeng Aluminum Foil, a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company, plans to invest in an annual output of 100,000 tons of high-precision aluminum foil, which will be built in two phases. Each phase will produce 50,000 tons of high-precision aluminum foil per year, and the construction period will be 12 months each. It is expected that investment will gradually begin in 2011 according to the company's financial situation. Regardless of the 100,000 tons of production capacity that has not yet been built, the company's aluminum foil production capacity will reach 120,000 tons by the end of 2011. It is estimated that the output from 2010 to 2012 will be 50,000 tons, 85,000 tons, and 11 tons, respectively. In order to achieve self-sufficiency in raw materials for aluminum foil production, improve the company's industrial chain, and improve resilience to risks, the company invested in the construction of a 100,000 ton high-precision aluminum strip project through IPO fundraising and self-financing, which was completed and put into operation by the end of 2010. In addition, the company holds Ruifeng Aluminum to invest in the construction of a 450,000 tons/year high-precision aluminum strip project. The project is divided into three phases, with a construction period of 30 months for the first phase of the hot rolling production line; the construction period for the second phase of the cold rolling production line is 30 months; and the construction period for the third phase is expected to be 24 months. Excluding the 450,000 tons of production capacity that has not yet been built, the expected production of aluminum strips in 2010 to 2012 is 50,000 tons, 90,000 tons, and 10 tons, respectively. Overall, along with the rapid release of the company's future production capacity, the company's growth is quite certain. EPS is expected to be 0.5 yuan, 1.28 yuan, and 1.75 yuan respectively in 2010-2012. Give the company a “buy” rating.

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