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【申银万国】力生制药:预计上市首日价格50-55 元

申萬宏源 ·  Apr 23, 2010 00:00  · Researches

The company's IPO shares will be listed and traded on April 23. The issue price is 45 yuan/share, corresponding to 45 times the price-earnings ratio predicted in 2010. The number of shares issued was 46 million, and the online and offline subscription capital was 30.4 billion yuan. A leading general medicine company that mainly focuses on antihypertensive drugs and has other varieties. The company produces various dosage forms of drugs in more than 20 categories and more than 100 varieties all year round. Product sales cover the whole country, and some products are exported to Japan, Australia, and the United States. It has many high-quality varieties of cardiovascular drugs (“Subisan” brand indapamide tablets), anti-infective drugs (“Meifu” brand itraconazole capsules), and glucocorticoid drugs (hydrocortisone sodium succinate). Tianjin Pharmaceutical Group is the controlling shareholder of the company. Revenue and profit are growing steadily, and cardiovascular and antihypertensive products are the main sources. In 07-09, the company's revenue increased by 23% and net profit by a compound increase of 8%. In 2009, the company achieved revenue of 596 million yuan and net profit of 155 million yuan. Excluding the real estate business, the company's main business revenue increased by 15.8% from 2007 to 09. The gross margin of the company's main products has fluctuated greatly in the past three years, while the cost ratio has remained stable during this period. Cardiovascular and antihypertensive products are the company's leading products, accounting for 43% of revenue. Revenue is expected to maintain a 15% growth rate over the next three years. Hormone, anti-infective, antipyretic and analgesic, and respiratory products currently account for a relatively small share, but they have reduced business risks and enriched the product hierarchy, and may become a new profit growth point for the company in the future. The antihypertensive drug brand indapamide tablets is leading in China. Indapamide is an effective diuretic and antihypertensive drug commonly used in clinical practice. Lisheng Pharmaceutical was the first manufacturer to produce this product and has always had an absolute advantage in market sales share, with a market share exceeding 70% over the years. The antihypertensive drugs used by primary patients are still mainly domestic compound preparations and short-acting antihypertensive drugs, making the future market space for this product broad. Fund-raising projects address insufficient production capacity to meet future growth. The chemical API project is mainly used to expand the production of lamivudine, emtricitabine, nevirapine and guaifenol glycerol APIs. Meanwhile, pharmaceutical production and research and development projects are used to expand production of five major types of oral solid preparations, including cardiovascular drugs. The estimated price on the first day of listing is 50-55 yuan. With the promotion of the medical insurance system and the implementation of the national essential drug system, companies will benefit from it. We expect the company's fully diluted earnings per share in 2010-2012 to be 1.01 yuan, 1.12 yuan, and 1.23 yuan, up 19.67%, 10.18%, and 10.31% year on year. Considering the recent performance of the SME pharmaceutical IPO on the first day and the company's future development prospects, we believe that the company's stock price on the first day of listing is at 50-55 yuan, which corresponds to the predicted price-earnings ratio of 45-50 times in 2011, which is 10-22% higher than the issue price.

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