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【天相投资】国创高新:受益公路网建设,区域龙头谋新发展

天相投資 ·  Mar 11, 2010 00:00  · Researches

The company now issued 27 million A-shares, with a total share capital of 107 million shares after issuance. The largest shareholder of the company is Guochuang Group, with a shareholding ratio of 47.48% after issuance. The actual controller is Mr. Gao Qingshou. The company is mainly engaged in the production and sale of modified asphalt, and is one of the main suppliers of modified asphalt in China. The company has established modified asphalt production bases in Hubei, Guangxi and Shaanxi, and its business can expand into central China, southwest China and northwest China. The modified asphalt industry is developing steadily: modified asphalt is mainly used for high-grade highway construction. Currently, domestic highway construction is developing rapidly. The average annual traffic mileage for the past 10 years has exceeded 4,000 kilometers. It is expected that the annual traffic mileage of domestic highways will maintain a high incremental level until 2015. As the mileage base for the opening of domestic highways increases, highway maintenance is expected to become an important consumer market for modified asphalt. The business foundation is good, and profit is guaranteed: through analyzing the business model, the development potential of the main market, and the profit status of the main products, etc., we believe that the market development potential of the company's region is good. The launch of the fund-raising project will increase the daily production capacity of modified asphalt to 10,600 tons. The product supply capacity will increase by leaps and bounds, and shortfalls in production sites are expected to be made up; the company currently sells asphalt produced exclusively by SK in South Korea, and the risk of price fluctuations in substrate asphalt procurement prices is still well controlled, and the profitability of the company's modified asphalt products is guaranteed. Fund-raising projects boost the company's development: The capital raised by the company will mainly be used to build a modified asphalt production base in Ezhou, a rubber powder modified asphalt project, and a modified asphalt mobile plant. After the project is put into operation, the company will add a daily production capacity of 7,000 tons/day for modified asphalt and 3,000 tons/day for rubber asphalt. The company's modified asphalt supply capacity and scope of supply will be significantly enhanced. After full delivery, the company's revenue and profit scale are expected to increase by more than 80% compared to 2009. Profit forecast and valuation: Based on the company's total share capital of 107 million shares after issuance, the 2010-2011 EPS is expected to be 0.49 yuan and 0.69 yuan respectively. We think we can give the company a price-earnings ratio of 25-30 times in 2010. Based on the 2010 EPS of 0.49 yuan, a reasonable valuation range is 12.2-14.7 yuan.

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