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【海通证券】丽鹏股份跟踪报告:设立产业基金+增发补流,未来外延并购预期强烈

海通證券 ·  Apr 17, 2015 00:00  · Researches

Incident: The company announced on the evening of April 15 that Huayu Garden, a wholly-owned subsidiary, and Great Wall Securities signed a “Framework Agreement on Cooperation Intent to Jointly Initiate the Establishment of an Ecological Industry Fund”. Brief review and investment suggestions: Set up an industrial fund plus additional issuance to supplement the flow, and the company's expectations for external mergers and acquisitions are strong. The ecological industry fund to be set up this time mainly invests in PPP projects undertaken by Huayu Garden or upstream and downstream industrial mergers and acquisitions expansion and incubation projects carried out by Huayu Garden, which is conducive to enhancing the company's investment capacity, expanding financing channels, and helping the company achieve integrated coverage of the ecological industry chain. Furthermore, the company recently announced that it plans to issue A-shares privately to five specific investors, raising no more than 679 million yuan in total capital. After deducting issuance fees, all of which will be used to supplement working capital. We believe that a fixed increase in the company can provide strong financial support for the development of various businesses, while also further enhancing the certainty of the company's future external mergers and acquisitions. With the development of the dual main industries of anti-counterfeiting bottle caps+landscaping, Internet manufacturing and environmental protection are important directions in the future. 1) The company is the absolute leader in the anti-counterfeiting bottle cap industry. Currently, it has an annual output of more than 2 billion caps, which is four times that of the second place, with a market share of more than 10%, and multiple barriers to customer quality, production capacity, capital and technology. Affected by the restructuring of the liquor industry in 2014, the growth rate of the company's bottle capping business has slowed. We judge that in the future, while continuing to adjust the bottle cap product structure, expand domestic and international market fields, and strengthen product quality, etc., the company will further utilize new thinking (such as the Internet and big data) to increase business model innovation, increase end consumer stickiness, increase the added value of bottle caps, and ensure the stable development of bottle cap business. 2) The company completed the acquisition of Huayu Garden in 2014 and achieved the development of the dual main business of anti-counterfeiting bottle caps and landscaping. Huayu Garden is a comprehensive landscaping enterprise with a full industry chain covering landscape planning and design, garden engineering construction, seedling planting and sales, and garden maintenance. In addition, the company's business scope also covers ecological restoration and municipal landscape greening projects, and the advantages of industry-leading integrated services are obvious. The balanced development of municipal garden business and ecological restoration business has laid a good foundation for the company's long-term development and reduction of business risks. Profit forecasting and valuation. Based on the calculation of the additional 60.9 million shares issued this time, we predict that the company's diluted EPS in 2015-2017 will be 0.49/0.61/0.75 yuan respectively, giving the company 35 xPE in 2016, corresponding to the target price of 21.35 yuan, a “buy” rating. For more information, please see our in-depth report “Lipeng Shares (002374) In-depth Report: 3.7 billion market cap leader+big data marketing+garden environmental protection 20150114” for the main uncertainties. Consumption of second- and third-tier liquor continues to decline; development progress for downstream beverage, medical, and other customers has fallen short of expectations.

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