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【中信证券】鲁丰股份:期待下半年产能释放

中信證券 ·  Aug 18, 2010 00:00  · Researches

The interim results were generally in line with expectations. In the first half of 2010, the company achieved operating income of 508.6369 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 56.19%; realized net profit of 17.7373 million yuan, an increase of 80.29% over the previous year; and earnings per share were 0.26 yuan, which is close to the lower limit of the company's previous advance increase of 80110%. The increase in revenue is mainly due to the production and sales of aluminum strips. As a result of the 50,000-ton aluminum strip fund-raising project, aluminum strip achieved revenue of 10,4716,300 yuan in the first half of the year (accounting for 22.2% of main revenue), an increase of about 28.8 times over the previous year. The gross margin of aluminum strip was 3.6%, contributing about 3.77 million yuan in gross profit, accounting for less than 6%. There was no new aluminum foil production capacity in the first half of the year, and the Qingdao project is expected to release production capacity in the second half of the year. In the first half of the year, revenue from household and medicinal aluminum foil increased by 19.9% and 21.4%, respectively, and gross margin stabilized at around 17%. It is expected that the Qingdao project will form part of production capacity in the second half of the year, which will generate about 15,000 tons of aluminum foil production and sales. Aluminum foil sales are expected to grow at an average annual rate of about 50% over the next 3 years. The current production capacity of 40,000 tons of aluminum foil is difficult to meet customer needs. Currently, priority is given to guaranteeing orders for medicinal aluminum foil. Boxing's 30,000 ton project is expected to reach production in mid-2011, and the Qingdao 50,000 ton project is expected to form part of production capacity in 2010 and reach production by the end of 2011. It is estimated that the sales volume of aluminum foil from 2010 to 2012 was about 55/ 8/120,000 tons, respectively. The future consumer highlights of aluminum foil are in everyday household use and packaging. From 2001 to 2007, the average annual growth rate of aluminum foil consumption in China was 18.5%. Packaging, especially food packaging, accounts for 17.2% of aluminum foil consumption. Currently, the packaging of consumer goods such as daily necessities, food, and beverages in our country only cleverly uses aluminum foil, and the penetration rate is very low. Nearly 65% of consumer goods in developed countries use aluminum foil packaging and have entered everyday life. Risk factors: large fluctuations in the price of aluminum ingots; risk of changes in export tax rebate policies. Profit forecast and investment rating: The company's EPS for 2010/11/12 is 0.98/L.72/2.67 yuan, respectively, dynamic PE is 40/23/times, and PB is 3.2/2.8/2.4 times, respectively. The compounded annual growth rate of the company's net profit from 2010 to 2012 was 85%. The company was given 30 times PE in 2011, with a target price of 52 yuan. There is about 32% room from the predicted target price, and it still maintains a “buy” investment rating.

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