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【银河证券】鲁丰股份:外延式扩张提升公司短期预期

中國銀河 ·  Jun 29, 2011 00:00  · Researches

Investment points: 1. Incidents Yesterday, Lufeng shares (002379, SZ) rose and stopped without releasing new public information. 2. Our analysis and judgment (1) The company is in the production capacity release period. The company's Qingdao project is expected to be put into operation this year. The capacity utilization rate at the beginning of production was not high. We expect production to be reached from the end of the year to the first half of next year, at which time the company's production capacity will be greatly increased. (2) The company's current business competitiveness is strong. The company's main business model at present is the LME aluminum price+processing fee model. The company has strong bargaining power on processing fees, product differentiation is quite obvious, and it has a certain pricing initiative. The company has a dedicated team responsible for pricing. At present, the company's intermediate products are quite profitable, and has a relatively strong sales team. (3) The company's long-term development is facing challenges. We believe that the company's current intermediate goods profit model may not be able to grow at the same time as production capacity expands. The company's current gross margin of overseas sales is relatively low. Although the company explains this as “to seize overseas markets,” we believe that, judging from experience, after the company expands further, the gross margin in overseas markets may be further reduced. 3. Investment advice We believe that the company will be in a period of significant expansion in the next two years, that the release of performance may be more obvious, and that the company is in a period of growth from a small market capitalization to a company with a large market capitalization, with a certain investment value. 4. Risk Warning There are two risks that we think are worth paying special attention to: the first is the risk that the company's gross profit will fall. After the company expanded production, the gross profit of overseas business is currently low. If future expansion still relies on overseas business, the gross profit may fall further. The second is the risk of company expansion. In the process of growing from a small company to a large company, a company may encounter various problems encountered in general enterprise expansion. Judging from the research situation, the company is very optimistic about future prospects, and does not fully estimate the difficulties in this area.

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