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【天相投资】赛象科技:3季度业绩持续下滑,预计4季度有所回升

天相投資 ·  Oct 20, 2010 00:00  · Researches

From January to September 2010, the company achieved operating income of 360 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.63%; net profit attributable to owners of the parent company was 485.433 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 20.52%, and EPS was 0.40 yuan. In the third quarter, the company achieved operating income of 101 million yuan, down 12.75% year on year and 13.84% month on month; net profit belonging to parent company owners was 10.1057 million yuan, down 26.26% year on year, down 46.00% month on month, and EPS was 0.08 yuan. The company's fourth quarter results are expected to pick up somewhat. The company's main products are heavy duty radial tire manufacturing series equipment, engineering radial tire manufacturing series equipment and other equipment. The revenue for the first half of the year was 107 million yuan, 82 million yuan, and 61 million yuan respectively, up 2.36%, down 1.01%, and 28.12%, respectively, compared with the same period last year. In the third quarter, the company's operating income and net profit continued to decline. Considering that the 3rd quarter is the traditional low season for downstream heavy trucks and construction machinery, the decline in the company's performance did not exceed expectations. With the launch of the Airbus A320 (included among other devices) as scheduled in the second half of the year and the recovery in downstream car sales, we expect the company's fourth quarter results to gradually pick up. As a leader in the rubber machine industry, in the medium to long term, the company will benefit from an increase in tire meridification rate. The company's overall gross margin rebounded month-on-month. In January-September, the company's comprehensive gross margin was 29.35%, down 1.30 percentage points year on year; in the 3rd quarter, the company's comprehensive gross margin was 30.33%, up 1.55 percentage points year on year, up 4.76 percentage points from month to month. The recovery in the company's gross margin was in line with expectations. This also confirms our mid-report judgment: with mass production of new equipment and further cost optimization, the company's gross margin will pick up in the second half of the year. The cost rate remained high during the period. The company's expense ratio for the January-September period was 17.57%, up 3.33 percentage points from the previous year. Among them, the management expense ratio was 12.92%, up 3.66 percentage points from the previous year. The company's expense ratio for the third quarter was 18.10%, up 2.45 percentage points year on year and down 0.47 percentage points from month to month. Among them, the management expense ratio was 13.47%, up 3.22 percentage points from the previous year, and down 0.09 percentage points from the previous month. Due to the company's continuous R&D investment and no corresponding output (the fund-raising project is expected to be put into operation only in 2012), the management expense ratio has risen markedly compared to the same period last year, making the company's cost ratio significantly higher than the historical average. We expect the company's expense ratio to remain high during 2011. Profit forecasting, investment advice, and risk. Considering the increase in the company's expense ratio, we slightly lowered our profit forecast. Based on the closing price of 28.25 yuan on October 19, the dynamic P/E is 43 times, 35 times, and 25 times, respectively. The company's stock price has continued to be adjusted since listing. The current price is relatively reasonable, but considering that the company's performance has not improved significantly, we have maintained a “neutral” investment rating for the time being. The company's risks are mainly reflected in the risk that the progress of the fund-raising project will be delayed again, and the risk that the Airbus A320 follow-up project will not start as scheduled.

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