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【国泰君安证券】皖通科技:借力跨境电商发展,塑造物流信息服务新成长模式

國泰君安 ·  Sep 29, 2014 00:00  · Researches

Key investment points: The first coverage gives an increase in holdings rating, and the target price is 25 yuan. Cross-border e-commerce is on the rise, and shipping logistics information helps cross-border e-commerce improve management efficiency; Huadong Electronics, a wholly-owned subsidiary, is a leader in port informatization, has big data on logistics informatization and will build a logistics information service platform. The company's 2014-15 EPS is estimated to be 0.32/0.43 yuan, respectively. Considering the good market prospects of the company's logistics information platform, a certain valuation premium was given, and a target price of 25 yuan was given, corresponding to 78 times and 6 times PE and PS in 2014 (comparable to the company's average PE and PS 66 times and 7 times). With the rise of cross-border e-commerce, the integration of shipping logistics information will effectively improve the efficiency of cross-border e-commerce logistics. In August 2013, the State Council officially issued the “Six National Rules” to strongly support the development of cross-border e-commerce; the Ministry of Commerce expects the total import and export value of cross-border e-commerce to increase to 6.5 trillion yuan by 2016, with an average annual growth rate of 28%; mainline shipping will be the main logistics model for cross-border e-commerce. The leading port information technology company has big data on logistics information. 1) Huadong Electronics, a wholly-owned subsidiary, is the most comprehensive domestic port and shipping enterprise information system solution provider. It has more than 100 domestic port customers and an estimated market share of more than 50%. 2) China Port Network, a subsidiary of Huadong Electronics, has detailed information on 90,000 logistics companies and shipping schedule data for more than 100 major shipping companies. The company has signed cooperation agreements with 10 ports, and can directly obtain authorization to use port container data. The profit margin of the shipping logistics information platform reached 1.14 billion yuan. The company's fixed increase project will build a logistics information service platform; integrated logistics information can share revenue with integrated foreign trade service platforms such as Yidatong and Dalong Logistics or cross-border e-commerce cooperation such as AliExpress. We simply estimate that the profit margin of the shipping logistics information platform is as high as 1.14 billion yuan; in the long run, the company is also expected to transform into a third-party logistics service provider in the future. Risk factors: The construction progress of the logistics information service platform is lower than expected, and there is a risk that the highway business will decline.

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