2013 Business Review: cost Compression helps reverse performance
The company's 13-year revenue was 12.716 billion, down 1.53% from the same period last year, and the net profit belonging to shareholders of listed companies was 24 million, up 126.41% from the same period last year. (1) the gross profit margin increased from 0.69pp to 20.99% compared with the same period last year, indicating that the company has made achievements in category management and optimizing procurement channels, and it is expected that the gross profit margin will continue to increase; (2) the rate of sales management expenses has decreased from 0.44pp to 19.76%, because labor and operating expenses have decreased by 11.47% and 3.66%, respectively. It is expected that labor, rent and operating expenses will still put pressure on profit growth; (3) the increase in gross profit margin and the decline in expense rate will turn the company into profit, and the net profit rate will rise to 0.19%; (4) the share of food, fresh, daily chemical and department stores will continue to rise; income in South China will decline by 6.72%, while that in Northwest China will increase by 7.56%. The trend is expected to continue. (5) 10 new stores have been opened and Shenzhen seaside shops and Pinghu shops have been closed; (6) the ban on IPO restricted shares has been lifted on January 14, 2014.
14-year business outlook: focus on cost control
The company will maintain the expansion strategy of community stores in first-and second-tier cities and hypermarkets in third-and fourth-tier cities. It is expected that the company will add 10 new stores and a net increase of 8 stores in 14 years, representing an area growth rate of about 8%. In the context of oversupply and e-commerce diversion, the company is expected to face more serious diversion pressure in the next few years, especially the same store growth pressure in Guangdong will continue. In the past 14 years, the company focuses on the improvement of internal efficiency with cost control as the core, and labor and rental costs are the core factors affecting the recovery of the company's net interest rate.
Profit forecast and investment suggestion
Affected by poor customer experience, serious homogenization, e-commerce diversion, oversupply, and rising cost rigidity, the gathering capacity and profitability of hypermarkets in first-and second-tier cities continue to decline; with the completion of a large number of commercial real estate in the next two years, the format of hypermarkets in third-and fourth-tier cities is also about to end the blue sea period of expansion, and the future performance growth space of hypermarkets is limited. We judge that the company will have a profit margin recovery process in 14 years after 13 years of smooth turnaround, and then it will enter a period of stable and low-speed development. Downgrade the company's 14-16 EPS forecast to 0.08,0.08,0.09 yuan, maintaining the "hold" rating.
Risk hint
The growth of the same store has dropped sharply, and the pressure on labor and rent has increased.