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【平安证券】皖通科技:深扎高速公路市场,布局智能交通蓝海

平安證券 ·  Oct 28, 2014 00:00  · Researches

Matters: The company released a report for the first three quarters of 2014: achieving operating income of 500 million yuan, an increase of 11.4%; net profit of 41.98 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.6%; net profit of 35.62 million yuan after deduction, an increase of 11% over the previous year; year-on-year increase in earnings per share of 0.20 yuan (as diluted by the latest share capital); and net assets per share of 4.76 yuan. At the same time, the company announced its 2014 annual forecast, which is expected to achieve net profit of 4953-7076 million yuan for the whole year, an increase of -30%-0% over the previous year. Ping An's view: Revenue maintained steady growth, and net profit performance after deducting the net profit performance was good. The company's revenue for the first three quarters increased 11.4% year on year, and revenue for a single quarter fell 3.58% year on year. We believe this is mainly due to delays in confirming some of the company's results. Affected by the sharp decline in investment income, the company's net profit declined in the third quarter, but net profit increased significantly after deducting non-recurring profit and loss, with a year-on-year increase of 11%. According to the experience of previous years, the fourth quarter was the peak period for confirming the company's performance. Based on this, we expect net profit expectations to be realized throughout the year as a probable event. The company's gross margin for the first three quarters fell slightly by 0.5 percentage points compared with last year. With the deepening of the “intelligent” construction of intelligent transportation in the future, the company will gradually benefit from the early layout of cloud computing and information platform projects. The share of high value-added businesses has increased, and we expect gross margin to be in an upward channel. The company's sales expense ratio was the same as the same period last year, and the increase in R&D investment led to a 2 percentage point increase in the company's management expense ratio over the same period last year. With the implementation of the company's new technological achievements in the future, there is a lot of room for decline in the company's expense ratio. Traditional business is growing steadily, new orders for internal and external development of intelligent transportation informatization platforms continue to be implemented, and traditional business growth is steady. The company is a leading enterprise in highway informatization construction in Anhui Province. While stabilizing the provincial market, the company has also increased the expansion of business outside the province in recent years. In the third quarter of this year, the company won the bid for the ED1 contract section of the Zhangyong Expressway in Longyan, Fujian Province. Furthermore, the company continues to develop downstream vertical industries, and the new port shipping and intelligent security business is currently progressing well. As the scope of business continues to expand, the company will face even higher demand in the traffic information technology market in the future. Endogeny and epitaxial work together to build an intelligent transportation informatization platform. On the basis of years of accumulated experience in technology and services, the company obtained Huadong Electronics' related qualification certification and software patents through external acquisitions, and participated in Hongtu Technology's cloud computing layout. On the endogenous side, the company continues to increase investment in information service platform construction and research, and has set up a holding subsidiary to focus on developing urban intelligent transportation services. In the future, the company will go deep into the field of intelligent transportation based on informatization platforms, and the company will usher in a new peak in performance. Maintaining the “recommended” rating, the target price is 16.5 yuan without considering the impact of the company's epitaxial expansion. We expect the company's EPS for 14-16 to be 0.38, 0.48, and 0.60 yuan, respectively. Considering that the construction of transportation informatization during the “12th Five-Year Plan” period will drive the accelerated development of urban intelligent transportation systems and port informatization, there is room for the company's stock price to rise and maintain the “recommended” rating, with a target price of 16.5 yuan. Risk warning: Macroeconomic policy risks and risks of uncertainty in promoting intelligent transportation informatization.

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