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【申银万国】柘中建设:全国第二大大直径管桩企业,建议询价区间13-14.8元

申萬宏源 ·  Jan 13, 2010 00:00  · Researches

Key investment points: The company is currently an important manufacturer of PHC pipe piles in the domestic prestressed concrete pipe pile industry. Currently, it has 2 production lines for small-diameter PHC pipe piles below φ600 (inclusive) and 2 large-diameter PHC pipe pile production lines above φ600, and 1 spiral welded pipe production line for φ500 to φ3,700. It is one of the most important production bases in the domestic field of large-diameter PHC pipe piles above φ600. Among them, the market share of 25% of large diameter pipe piles ranks second in the country. Large-diameter PHC pipe piles, on the one hand, are difficult to achieve significant growth in production in the short term due to high entry technology, transportation, etc.; on the other hand, the scale of their investment in downstream waterway infrastructure fields such as ports and wharves and the shipbuilding industry will continue to grow rapidly. The market demand for their products is huge, and the product profit margin is large, and they will become the main development direction of China's concrete pipe pile industry. Due to the relatively good market situation for large diameter pipe piles, the profit level is significantly higher than that of small diameter pipe piles. The gross margin of large diameter pipe piles reached 29.4% in the first half of 2009, while the gross margin of small diameter pipe piles fell from 23.8% in 2008 to 9.72% in the first half of 2009, which is only 1/3 of the gross margin of large diameter pipe piles. The company actively adjusted the product structure and increased the proportion of large diameter pipe piles. Under the influence of structural adjustment, the company's large diameter PHC pipe piles accounted for 95.3% of the company's revenue from 51.32% in 2006 to 95.3% in the first half of 2009, and the share of gross profit contribution increased from 60% in 2006 to 99.9% in the first half of 2009. The company's EPS for 09-11 is estimated to be 0.42/0.57/0.77 yuan/share, with a compound annual growth rate of 35%. Currently, the 10-year price-earnings ratio of companies in the building materials industry is about 15-20 times. Due to its good growth, the company's performance growth in the next three years is good. We think we can give it a 10-year price-earnings ratio of 23-26 times, and the recommended inquiry range is 13-14.8 yuan. Risk: The company's main risks stem from a sharp increase in raw material prices and increased competition in the industry.

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